中国通货膨胀周期波动与趋势的影响因素分析——基于总体平均经验模式分解法  

Empirical Analysis on the Influencing Factors on Periodic Fluctuation and Trend of the Inflation in China——Based on EEMD Model

作　　者：李成[1] 郭哲宇[1] 张琦[1] 

机构地区：[1]西安交通大学经济与金融学院,陕西西安710061

出　　处：《金融经济学研究》2013年第4期36-48,共13页Financial Economics Research

基　　金：国家社会科学基金资助重点项目(2009ZD020)

摘　　要：货币供应、产出缺口和房价对中国通胀的短周期波动和长周期趋势均产生显著的正向影响,是中国通胀的主要影响因素,其中货币因素在长周期趋势中超越产出缺口成为主导因素。出口和国际商品价格在长周期趋势中对中国通胀也具有较强正压力,而利率仅在短周期波动中具有抑制作用。管理流动性仍然是央行控制通胀的重要手段,在关注国际市场波动的同时,还需要灵活迅速使用价格型工具进行调控。This paper discusses the short-period volatility, long-period volatility and the long-term trend of structural features of China＇ s inflation. The analyses of long/short period data confirm that money supply,output gap and housing prices are positively and significantly affecting the short -period volatility and long -term trend of inflation in China, and monetary become main influencing factor beyond the output gap in long term. Exports and international commodity prices in the long-period trend of inflation also has a strong posifive pressure, while the interest rates only have inhibitory effect in the short-period fluctuations. We suggest that,managing liquidity is still the important means for the central bank to control inflation, and we should flexibly use price-based instruments with attention to the international market.

关 键 词：通货膨胀 货币供应 产出缺口 

分 类 号：F822.5[经济管理—财政学]