超强台风“梅花”(1109号)的转向原因与预报分析  

Analysis on the turning and forecast of super typhoon Muifa

作　　者：曹晓岗[1] 王慧[1] 刘晓波[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海中心气象台,上海200030

出　　处：《暴雨灾害》2013年第2期151-157,共7页Torrential Rain and Disasters

基　　金：2010年度公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201006008);中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2012-019)

摘　　要：使用高空探测资料、FY-2C卫星云图、CIMSS气象卫星云图分析资料、历年台风路径、NCEP再分析资料,以及欧洲气象中心全球模式(EC)、日本气象厅全球模式(JMA)、国家气象中心全球模式(T639)、上海台风模式(SHTM)等预报资料,基于对2011年第9号台风"梅花"路径以及台风相似路径的预报等,分析影响台风"梅花"移动路径的环境系统演变,从中找出影响台风"梅花"移动转向的关键系统,分析和检验各数值模式对台风路径预报的结果;同时,研究台风路径相似预报方法。结果表明,位于日本的副热带高压南伸并与"梅花"东南侧的弱反气旋打通,引导气流中偏南风分量逐渐加大是"梅花"路径转向以致不在我国登陆的关键点;对数值模式预报的路径,应根据实况天气形势演变订正其预报误差;根据前期路径选多个关键区找台风相似路径更具参考性。Based on comprehensive data including radiosonde observations,FY-2C satellite images,products from CIMSS,Best Track Data of CMA,NCEP reanalysis data,outputs from models of ECMWF,JMA,CMA（T639）,and STI（SHTM-Shanghai Typhoon Model,Shanghai Typhoon Institute）,an analysis on environment systems transition and verification of numerical model products are performed to probe the turning cause and forecast error of super typhoon Muifa.Some facts are revealed as follows： the subtropical high located on Japan extends southward and is connected with a weak anticyclone southeast to Muifa,resulting in an intensification of the southerly steering flow of Muifa,which acts as a significant role in the turning of Muifa during 4th-5th Aug.2011.Forecast analysis illustrates that real-time correction processes are necessary for prediction products by numerical models according to actual weather situation before using.A multi-area searching could be a better method for finding similar typhoon track according to the historical storms.

关 键 词：台风“梅花” 路径 副热带高压 相似路径 

分 类 号：P458.124[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]