区域地震监测预警概率模型及应用  

The Early Warning Probability Model of Monitoring Regional Earthquake and Its Application

作　　者：于庆年[1] 

机构地区：[1]辽东学院师范学院数学系,辽宁丹东118001

出　　处：《数学的实践与认识》2013年第14期258-265,共8页Mathematics in Practice and Theory

基　　金：辽宁省科技厅公益研究基金(辽科发[2011]49)

摘　　要：研究以辽宁地震地质区域划分为基础,运用概率论原理分析辽宁地区地震的特征.研究表明地震是一个随机事件流,并且近似服从泊松分布规律,在此基础上建立地震监测预警数学模型.以2006年1月至2011年12月辽宁地震监测数据为依据进一步实证研究,表明该数学模型得出的地震预测预警结果具有较高的理论价值和实用价值.In this paper, According to the Liaoning earthquake geological zoning, the characteristics of the Liaoning Province earthquake is analyzed by probability theory. The study conclusion show that the earthquake is a random event stream and obey the Poisson distribution. A mathematical model of seismic monitoring is structured by these. The further empirical research is finished by Liaoning earthquake monitoring data from January 2006 to December 2011.The study conclusion indicate that the way of earthquake prediction by the mathematical model has a higher theoretical and practical value.

关 键 词：地震区域划分 弱震 中强震 数学模型 

分 类 号：P315.6[天文地球—地震学]