房地产市场非均衡度与政府干预时机——基于上海房地产市场非均衡模型与短边规则的实证研究  

Non-equilibrium Degree of Real Estate Market and Government Intervention Timing: Based on the Non-equilibrium Model and the Short——side Rules in Shanghai Real Estate Market

作　　者：谢波 施建刚[2] 

机构地区：[1]桂林国家高新七星区城建局,541004 [2]同济大学经济与管理学院,200092

出　　处：《上海经济研究》2013年第7期138-146,156,共10页Shanghai Journal of Economics

基　　金：教育部社科规划基金项目:<我国城市住房制度改革及效果评价研究>(立项号:12YJA630099)研究成果

摘　　要：本文采用1993—2011年的时间序列数据,运用非均衡模型和"短边规则"双曲线聚合方程,对上海房地产市场进行了非均衡分析,测算了上海房地产市场的非均衡度;并基于非均衡度,对房地产市场政府干预的时机进行分析。结果表明:上海房地产市场长期以来存在着有效供求非均衡状态,房地产市场有效需求和有效供给都与城镇家庭人均可支配收入、城镇人口比重存在着正相关关系;抵押贷款实际利率的提高并未发挥抑制商品房有效需求与有效供给的作用;房地产市场并无明显的"羊群效应"现象。房地产市场非均衡度是政府干预市场的重要参考指标,政府应灵活运用市场干预政策,对不同时期房地产市场供需失衡进行合理干预,从而促进市场回归均衡状态,确保房地产市场健康、平稳发展。In this paper, we analyzed the non-equilibrium of Shanghai＇s real estate market by the non-equilibrium model and the short-side rule hyperbolic aggregation equation based on the time series data of 1993 -2011. The paper Estimated the degree of non-equilibrium of the real estate market. And based on non-equilibrium degree, we analyzed of the timing of Shanghai＇s government intervention of real estate market. The results showed that： Shanghai＇s real estate market has long been the existence of effective demand and supply of non-equilibrium state. The effective demand and effective supply of the real estate market had positive correlation with per capita disposable income of urban households and the proportion of urban population. And there is no ＂Herding ＂ phenomenon in Shanghai＇s real estate market. Non-equilibrium degree of the real estate market is an important index of government intervention in the market. Government should sdjust the imbalance of supply and demand of the real estate market by flexible intervention policies. So as to promote the real estate market return to equilibrium and ensure the health and steady growth of the real estate market.

关 键 词：非均衡度 短边规则 有效供需 房地产市场干预 

分 类 号：F293.35[经济管理—国民经济]