信息与应急决策:一个解释框架  

Information Source and Information Channel: An Explanatory Framework for Emergency Decision-making

作　　者：钟开斌[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]国家行政学院应急管理培训中心 [2]清华大学中国应急管理研究基地,兼职研究员北京100089

出　　处：《中国行政管理》2013年第8期106-111,共6页Chinese Public Administration

基　　金：国家社科基金青年项目"基于信息的适应性政府应急决策机制研究"(项目编号:11CGL090);国家自然科学基金"非常规突发事件应急管理研究"重大研究计划重点支持项目"新时期中国特色应急管理体系的顶层设计和模式重构"(项目编号:91224009)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：应急决策是应急管理的核心,是一个多主体、多阶段、多层级的适应性动态演进过程。信息不对称是突发事件情景下决策者通常所面临的重大挑战。本文构建了一个"信息源-信息渠道"解释框架,把信息源和信息渠道看作是两个相互独立的变量,共同决定着应急决策行为。只有信息源清晰、信息渠道畅通并且两者恰当匹配时,决策者才能快速高效地进行决策,迅捷有序地采取有效的应急措施。文章通过对2003年"非典"疫情及2008年汶川地震、襄汾溃坝三个应急决策"失败"案例的比较研究,证实了"信息源-信息渠道"解释框架的解释力和说服力。Decision--making, which is a multi--actor, multi--stage and multi--level ongoing process, is the key issue of emergency management.Information asymmetry is a problem that prevents from communication processes to be effective for emergency mak- ers.This paper puts forward a new model of information source and information channel for analyzing emergency decision-- making. According to this model, information source and information channel are independent variables to determine the process and consequence of emergency decision--making, only when emergency information is accurately/comprehensively collected by lower--level first responders and then suitably/adequately reported to the next higher--level decision makers, can the next higher--level decision makers open up the ＂windows of opportunity＂ for decision--making, precisely frame and define problem and immediately respond to new situations.This has been justified by the comparative case studies of the 2003 SARS crisis,the 2008 Wenchuan Catastrophic Earthquake and the September 8 Large Dam--break Accident in Shanxi Xiangfen.

关 键 词：应急决策 信息源 信息渠道 

分 类 号：D630[政治法律—政治学]