货币政策指数及对经济周期的影响  

Monetary Policy Index and It's Impact on the Economic Cycle

作　　者：毛志杰[1,2] 李博[3] 杨晋丽[4] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民银行征信中心博士后科研工作站 [2]中国人民银行金融研究所博士后流动站 [3]中国人民银行金融研究所 [4]中国人民银行征信中心,北京100800

出　　处：《西部金融》2013年第7期24-30,共7页West China Finance

摘　　要：本文选择利率、存款准备金率、货币供应量等指标,尝试性提出并计算货币政策指数,并以该指数的变动代表我国货币政策调控方向,论证了我国货币政策调控具有周期性特征。在此基础上,分析我国货币政策指数变动,即货币政策周期与经济周期之间的关系,初步验证了货币政策指数的有效性。结果表明:各货币政策工具作用形成的货币政策指数与货币政策目标基本一致。The paper chooses the index such as the interest rate, the deposit reserve rate and money supply, tentatively puts forward and calculates monetary policy index, makes the index changes represent the direction of China＇s monetary policy adjustment and control, and demonstrates the cyclical characteristics of China＇s monetary policy adjustment and control. Based on the above analysis, the paper analyzes the China＇s monetary policy index changes, namely the relationship between the monetary policy cycle and eco- nomic cycle, preliminarily verify the effectiveness of monetary policy index. Results show that the monetary policy index formed by the functions of various monetary policy tools is basically identical to monetary policy targets.

关 键 词：货币政策变动指数 经济周期 

分 类 号：F830.31[经济管理—金融学]