服役桥梁状况指数预测模型研究  

The research of bridge conditionsindex forecast model

作　　者：黄伟[1] 陈涛[1] 张华 张伟松 卞祝[1] 

机构地区：[1]安徽工业大学建筑工程学院,安徽马鞍山243000 [2]马鞍山市市政管理处,安徽马鞍山243000

出　　处：《四川建材》2013年第4期70-72,共3页Sichuan Building Materials

摘　　要：本文以桥梁管理系统的预测功能开发为目标,确定了桥梁状况指数(BCI)为服役桥梁主要的预测指标。通过采用回归分析理论、灰色系统理论及spss软件,对收集的服役桥梁状况数据进行研究,据此构建了不同的桥梁状况指数(BCI)预测模型,经过分析、比选,确定了三次函数预测模型为最优模型,利用此模型可对桥梁未来服役状态进行预测,并根据预测结果给出相关的建议。The purpose is to develop the predictive function of the bridge management system.And the Bridge Condition Index（BCI） is determined as the main predictive index of the bridges in service.The condition data of bridges that are in service is researched by using regression analysis theory,grey system theory and SPSS software.And the Bridge Condition Index（BCI） prediction model is built on the basis of that.The cubic function predictive model is finally determined as the optimal model by analyzing and comparing.The future service status of bridges could be predicted by using the model.And related advices could be put forwarded according to the predicting results.

关 键 词：回归分析 灰色系统 预测 桥梁状况指数(BCI) 拟合程度 决定系数 

分 类 号：U44[建筑科学—桥梁与隧道工程]