基于实物期权理论的桉树投资决策问题分析  

Analysis of Eucalyptus Investment Decision-making Based on Real Option Theory

作　　者：王芝泉[1] 刘晋浩[2] 

机构地区：[1]东北林业大学工程技术学院,哈尔滨150040 [2]北京林业大学工学院,北京100083

出　　处：《森林工程》2013年第5期131-134,共4页Forest Engineering

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(70932004);国家"十一五"科技支撑项目(2006BAD11A15)

摘　　要：在分析桉树人工林项目具有的长期性、不确定性、阶段性等特点的基础上,从投资的角度研究人工林项目的期权特性。通过比较分析两种期权定价理论,选择使用二项树法来评价人工林项目的不确定性价值,弥补传统以净现金流为核心的投资决策方法无法评价项目的不确定性价值的缺陷,分别使用放弃期权、延迟期权和选择期权的方式评价桉树人工林项目的不确定性价值。研究表明,相对于传统现金流理论,桉树人工林项目的不确定性价值得到充分体现,期权定价理论更能反映项目的真实、客观价值。The project of eucalyptus plantation is a long-term project with uncertainty and phased features.In this paper,the real option features of eucalyptus plantation were analyzed in view of investment.Throught the comparison between two pricing theories of real option,the binary tree evaluation method was selected to evaluate the uncertainty of the project,which can replenish the shortcoming of traditional cash flow-based investment decision-making methods.Three evaluation methods including abandon option,defer option,and select option were used to estimate the undertainty of eucalyptus plantation project.The study indicated that compared to the traditional cash flow-based theories,the real option pricing theory can effectively and objectively assess the uncertainty of eucalyptus plantation project.

关 键 词：实物期权 桉树人工林 投资决策 

分 类 号：S792.39[农业科学—林木遗传育种]