决策的三参照点理论：从原理到应用：  

Tri-Reference Point Theory of Decision Making: From Principles to Applications

作　　者：王晓田 王鹏[2] 

机构地区：[1]University of South Dakota,美国SD 57069 [2]华东师范大学心理与认知科学学院,上海200062

出　　处：《心理科学进展》2013年第8期1331-1346,共16页Advances in Psychological Science

基　　金：美国国家科学基金会(NSF,SES-1123341)资助

摘　　要：三参照点理论(Tri-Reference Point Theory,Wang,2008a;Wang&Johnson,2012)以底线、现状和目标为参照点,将决策结果空间划分为失败、损失、获益和成功4个功能区域。根据3个参照点的心理权重的排序:底线>目标>现状,该模型继而推导出跨越不同区域的以现状为分界的双S-型的价值函数,以及据此产生的对于跨越不同参照点的预期结果的偏好转换、和损失-获益及失败-成功的两种不对称性。总之,风险决策的基本任务在于,在使得达到目标的可能性最大化的同时使底线不保的可能性最小化。三参照点理论将统计学和金融学中的均值与方差(均差)分析与行为决策研究中的参照点效应有机地结合在一起;在面对不同的风险选项时,通过分析各个预期结果的均差分布与3个参照点之间的关系作出适应性的决策。本文介绍了三参照点理论的基本推论、运行原则、实证检验、以及它与期望效用理论和前景理论相比较的异同之处。同时我们也探讨了三参照点理论对实践中管理决策的指导意义和多重启示。Tri-reference point （TRP） theory （Wang, 2008a; Wang ＆ Johnson, 2012） makes use of three reference points, minimum requirement （MR）, status quo （SQ）, and goal （G） to demarcate choice outcome space into four functional regions： failure, loss, gain, and success. Based on the priority order of the reference points： MR 〉 G 〉 SQ, the model derives from the four regions a double S-shaped value function, connected at the point of SQ. Risk preferences switched between risk-seeking and risk-aversion when the distribution of a gamble straddles a different reference point and resulted in gain-loss and success-failure asymmetries. In sum, the basic task in making risky choices is to maximize the likelihood of reaching a goal and minimize the likelihood of falling below the MR at the same time. The TRP theory synthetically combines the powerful concept of mean-variance used in statistics and finance with the concept of reference points in the behavioral decision making literature takes into consideration the mean-variance distribution of a choice option and its relationship with the three reference points in order to reach adaptive decisions. In this paper, we introduce the basic assumptions, operational principles, experimental tests of the TRP theory, and compare the TRP theory against expected utility theory, and prospect theory. We also discuss practical guidance and implications of the TRP theory for managerial decision making.

关 键 词：决策 风险选择 预期功效 参照点 价值函数 前景理论 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C934[哲学宗教—心理学]