情感预测中的聚焦错觉  

Focusing Illusion in Affective Forecasting

作　　者：罗寒冰[1,2] 徐富明[1,2] 郭永玉[1,2] 郑秋强[1,2] 李彬 张慧[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]青少年网络心理与行为教育部重点实验室 [2]华中师范大学心理学院暨湖北省人的发展与心理健康重点实验室,武汉430079

出　　处：《心理科学进展》2013年第8期1482-1492,共11页Advances in Psychological Science

基　　金：国家自然科学基金面上项目"不同社会阶层分配不公平感的归因模式及应对策略"(项目批准号:71171094)资助

摘　　要：聚焦错觉是个体在进行情感预测时,错误地估计了聚焦事件会对情绪造成影响的一种倾向。聚焦错觉是造成情感预测偏差的重要原因。其心理机制主要包括直觉预测和可得性模型。聚焦错觉的影响因素主要有预测事件的情感效价、性质,情境因素、个体习惯和文化差异等。其应对策略主要有去焦点化和情感平均。未来的研究应从聚焦错觉与忽视情绪适应的关系、聚焦错觉的产生根源以及聚焦错觉与其他聚焦效应的关系等方面来进一步探讨。Focusing illusion refers to a tendency that individuals fail to estimate how focal event would affect their emotion when they are making an affective forecasting. Focusing illusion is a major explanation for affective forecasting bias. There are two psychological mechanisms of focusing illusion： intuitive prediction and accessibility model. The factors to influence focusing illusion are： valence and feature of the predicted event, context, habit and cultural difference and so on. The strategies to deal with the focusing illusion are： defocusing and affective averaging. Future research shall clarify the relationship between focusing illusion and fail to considerate emotional adaptation, to deepen our understanding of its original roots and to clarify the relationship between focusing illusion and other focusing effects.

关 键 词：聚焦错觉 直觉预测 可得性模型 情感预测 

分 类 号：B849[哲学宗教—应用心理学] C91[哲学宗教—心理学]