District prediction of cholera risk in China based on environmental factors  

作　　者：XU Min CAO ChunXiang WANG DuoChun KAN Biao JIA HuiCong XU YunFei LI XiaoWen 

机构地区：[1]State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science, Jointly Sponsored by the Institute of Remote Sensing and Digital Earth of Chinese Academy of Sciences and Beijing Normal University [2]State Key Laboratory for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control, Institute for Infectious Disease Control and Prevention, Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention

出　　处：《Chinese Science Bulletin》2013年第23期2798-2804,共7页

基　　金：supported by the National High Technology Research and Development Program of China(2013AA12A302);the Young Talents Program Funding of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science(13RC-08);the Major Program on Science of State Key Laboratory of Remote Sensing Science(ZD12-5);the National Natural Science Foundation of China(41171330)

摘　　要：The epidemics of cholera are impacted by many climatic and environmental factors such as precipitation, temperature, elevation and so on. The paper analyzed the suitable degree of V. cholerae in China using MaxEnt based on some geographic and climatic factors, and predicted the cholera risk in each district of China according to the suitable degree. The result shows that the areas in coastal southeast, central China and western Sichuan Basin are relatively suitable for V. cholerae and the suitable degree is higher in the Xinjiang Basin than in surrounding areas. The variables of precipitation, temperature and DEM are three main environmental risky factors that affecting the distribution of cholera in China. The variables of relative humidity, the distance to the sea and air pressure also have impacts on cholera, but sunshine duration and drainage density have little impact. The AUC value of MaxEnt based model is above 0.9 which indicates a high accuracy.The epidemics of cholera are impacted by many climatic and environmental factors such as precipitation, temperature, elevation and so on. The paper analyzed the suitable degree of V. cholerae in China using MaxEnt based on some geographic and climatic factors, and predicted the cholera risk in each district of China according to the suitable degree. The result shows that the areas in coastal southeast, central China and western Sichuan Basin are relatively suitable for V. cholerae and the suitable degree is higher in the Xinjiang Basin than in surrounding areas. The variables of precipitation, temperature and DEM are three main environmen- tal risky factors that affecting the distribution of cholera in China. The variables of relative humidity, the distance to the sea and air pressure also have impacts on cholera, but sunshine duration and drainage density have little impact. The AUC value of MaxEnt based model is above 0.9 which indicates a high accuracy.

关 键 词：中国地区 环境因素 风险预测 霍乱 基础 气候因素 四川盆地 中部地区 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]