土坝风险分析方法及应用  

Risk Analysis Method for Earth Dams and Its Application

作　　者：吴震宇[1,2] 陈建康[1,2] 何坤[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]四川大学水力学与山区河流开发保护国家重点实验室,四川成都610065 [2]四川大学水利水电学院,四川成都610065

出　　处：《人民黄河》2013年第7期86-88,共3页Yellow River

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(51109151);中央高校基本科研业务费资助项目(2009SCU11082)

摘　　要：针对坝坡失稳、渗透破坏和洪水漫顶3种溃坝失事的风险分析问题,利用全概率公式建立了考虑库水位随机变化的坝坡失稳和渗透破坏风险数学模型,利用皮尔逊Ⅲ型曲线建立了超标洪水漫顶风险分析模型,提出了将风险积分式离散后用Monte-Carlo法计算的求解方法。某土坝风险分析结果表明:坝坡稳定安全系数总体随库水位的降低而增大,失效概率随库水位的降低而减小,坝坡失稳风险可接受;临界渗透坡降小于某界限值时,坝体渗透失效概率明显增大;超标洪水漫顶风险为2.246%。Risk analysis models for slope stability and penetration damage which can consider the random variation of water level was established based on the total probability formula,risk analysis model for flood overtopping was established using Pearson III curve equation,and after discretizing the risk integral,failure probability was computed with Monte Carlo method.The results of an earth dam risk analysis show that the safety factor of dam slope increases and the failure risk of dam slope decreases with the drop of the water level respectively,the risk rate is acceptable;if critical penetration gradient is smaller than a certain threshold value,the penetration failure probability is significantly increased;overtopping risk of exceeding the standard flood is 2.246%.

关 键 词：土坝 风险分析 坝坡失稳 渗透破坏 洪水漫顶 

分 类 号：TV641.2[水利工程—水利水电工程]