城市道路交通事故宏观影响因素灰色关联预测模型  

Grey Correlational Prediction Model of Macroscopic Influencing Factors Contributing to Urban Traffic Accident

作　　者：门玉琢[1] 于海波 李显生[3] 

机构地区：[1]长春工程学院机电工程学院,长春130012 [2]中国第一汽车股份有限公司技术中心,长春130011 [3]吉林大学交通学院,长春130022

出　　处：《机械设计与制造》2012年第12期251-253,共3页Machinery Design & Manufacture

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(51008034);吉林省科技发展计划资助项目(201201135)

摘　　要：为研究影响城市道路交通事故的主要因素,提出了灰色关联系统宏观影响预测方法。从人、车、路综合环境整体观点出发,结合城市交通事故的自身特点,建立了交通事故影响因素预测模型,通过EXCEL图表工具分析各影响因素与道路交通事故的关系,并应用灰色理论模型计算各影响因素的灰色关联度。以城市交通事故调查和统计资料为基础参考对象,对预测模型进行了实例验证。结果表明,所建模型可行、有效,能较好地预测交通事故各影响因素相互关系及主要影响因素,为交通管理部门事故预防提供了参考对策。Macroscopic influencing prediction model of grey correlation system was presented to re- search the main factors that affect urban traffic accident.Concerning the overall environmental perspective of people ,automobile ,and road as well as the distinctive characteristic of urban traffic accident,the predic- tion model of factors contributing to traffic accident was proposed.EXCEL software was applied to analyze the relations between the influencing factors and traffic accidents with grey theoretical model adopted to calculate the correlation grade among different factors. The prediction model was also validated through ex- amples on the basis of the investigation of traffic accident and the relevant statistics.The results show that the model is applicable and efficient in forecasting the main factors and the relations between them, thus providing reference for traffic administrative department to avoid traffic accidents.

关 键 词：交通工程 灰色系统 宏观预测模型 交通事故 灰色关联度 

分 类 号：TH16[机械工程—机械制造及自动化]