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机构地区:[1]北京物资学院,北京101149
出 处:《特区经济》2013年第7期63-65,共3页Special Zone Economy
摘 要:本文基于北京市2000~2012年常住人口数量,运用马尔萨斯模型进行人口分析和预测,并依据人口增长率的大小分为高、中、低三个预测方案,通过将预测值与实际值比较,选取偏差率较低的预测值和预测方案,从而提升预测的准确度。在预测结果为人口数量持续增加的基础上,本人从提升北京市人口容纳力和稀释人口密度的角度来提出建议,解决北京市人口过多和过于集中问题,一是提高北京市土地资源城市化的水平,二是提升北京市交通运营能力和覆盖网络。Based on the Beijing 2000~2012 resident population,use Malthusian model to do population analysis and forecasting,and divide into high,medium and low scenarios based on the size of the population growth rate,comparing the predicted number with the actual number,select the progrem of lower rate of deviation,so as to enhance the accuracy of prediction.Based on forecast results for the population continued to increase,from my point of view to enhance the capacity of the population in Beijing and diluted population density to make recommendations to solve the problem of overpopulation and too concentrated in Beijing :One is to raise the urbanization of land resources in Beijing the level,the second is to enhance the Beijing traffic operational capability and overlay network.
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