基于组合预测模型的河南省物流需求分析  

Henan Province Logistics Demand Analysis based on Combined Prediction Model

作　　者：彭晗[1] 吴金妹[1] 

机构地区：[1]华北水利水电大学,河南郑州450045

出　　处：《物流工程与管理》2013年第6期104-105,共2页Logistics Engineering and Management

基　　金：2011年度河南省软科学研究计划资助项目(112400410029)

摘　　要：为了充分掌握河南省物流业发展趋势,以货运量作为物流需求的被解释变量,建立了合适的组合预测模型,对河南省未来几年物流需求进行预测分析。结果表明:该模型预测结果是科学的、合理的、准确的,并证明河南省物流需求量将以10%以上的速度持续增加,这为物流企业的快速发展提供契机,同时也为政府决策及制定物流业发展规划提供一定的科学依据。For mastering fully development trend of logistics industry in Henan Province,taking freight volumes as an explained variable of logistics demand,establishing the suitable combined forecasting model,the logistics demand of Henan Province in the next few years is predicted and analyzed.The study shows that the prediction result of the model is scientific,reasonable,accurate,and that the Henan Province logistics demand will continue to increase at the speed of more than 10%,this provides a rapid development opportunity for logistics enterprises,but also provides certain scientific basis for government decision-making and Henan Province logistics industry development planning.

关 键 词：组合预测模型 河南省 物流需求分析 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济]