基于系统动力学的物流节能减排政策模拟  

The Logistics Policy Simulation of Energy Saving and Emission Reduction Based on System Dynamics

作　　者：唐丽敏[1] 曾颖[1] 王成武 曹荻[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连海事大学交通运输管理学院,辽宁大连116026 [2]中石油昆仑燃气有限公司总调度室,北京100101

出　　处：《系统工程》2013年第6期87-94,共8页Systems Engineering

基　　金：辽宁省教育厅高校科研项目(2009A814)

摘　　要：通过分析物流与经济、能源、环境之间的关系,建立物流节能减排系统的系统动力学模型。分析模型中促进我国物流行业节能减排的政策影响因素,并从增加环保资金投入、转变运输方式及改变物流能源消费结构三方面进行政策模拟。模拟结果表明,增加环保投入短期内对节能减排效果比较明显;降低公路货物周转,提高铁路及内河水路比重对节能减排效果显著;而增加一定量天然气消费比重,短期内对降低二氧化碳排放效果并不明显,但从长期考虑,意义重大。对模拟效果的进一步分析显示,我国物流业节能减排应重点加大对运输结构调整及运输能源消费结构调整两方面的政策投入,具体包括增加铁路、内河水路货运供给能力及清洁能源供给能力。The system dynamics model of energy saving and emission reduction was established through analyzing the relationship between logistics and the economy, energy, environment. By research of influencing factors of logistics industry in the model, this study mainly carries out policy simulations via below .. increasing investment in environmental protection ; adjusting the mode of transport and logistics energy consumption structure. The results showed that it is obvious in effect of energy saving and emission reduction of increasing environmental investment in the short term. Meanwhile it works out to a better degree when reducing road turnover. Otherwise, it seems not so optimistic for increasing the proportion of natural gas consumption to reduce the CO, emissions in short term. However, it might have significant influence from long-term research. Via deeper analysis of the simulation result, it shows that logistics industry should increase the investment for transportation mode transferring and energy consumption structure adjustment. Then it is essential to enhance railway and inland water transportation capacity and clean energy supply capacity.

关 键 词：物流工程 节能减排 系统动力学 政策模拟 CO2排放 

分 类 号：N941[自然科学总论—系统科学]