略论我国自然灾害对宏观经济增长的影响——基于内生经济增长理论视角  

Analysis of the Impact of Natural Disasters on Macroeconomic Growth——Based on the Theory of Endogenous Growth

作　　者：贾美芹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中州大学管理学院,河南郑州450044

出　　处：《经济问题》2013年第8期54-57,82,共5页On Economic Problems

基　　金：国家社科基金项目"重大自然灾害的统计问题与波及效应研究"(10BTJ009)

摘　　要：自然灾害具有偶发性,就我国全国范围看,自然灾害又是必然发生事件。把自然灾害损失内生化以度量其对宏观经济增长的影响。实证分析表明,自然灾害直接损失对当年经济增长起到负面影响,灾后2～3年的时间里对经济有拉动作用;而在灾后4～5年内表现出对经济的负面作用。总的来说,相对于投资和劳动投入自然灾害直接经济损失对GDP增长的影响比较小,长期影响表现出负弹性。自然灾害损失主要通过损失社会财富和拉动内需影响宏观经济增长,灾害当期主要是社会财富损失的负面影响,灾后2～3年则体现内需拉动的正面影响;从长期看,社会财富损失的负面影响要高于内需拉动的正面影响。As a nationwide of China, natural disasters is unavoidable other than is incidental. So to this article, natural disaster losses are as endogenous variables to measure its impact on macroeconomic growth. The resuhs sug- gest that The direct economic losses of disasters have a negative impact on the economic growth, and 2 years to 3 years after, have a stimulating effect. After 4 to 5 years, shows a negative effect on the economy. In general, com- pared with the effect of investment and labor, direct economic losses caused by natural disasters have relatively small impact on GDP growth, and long -term effects showed negative elasticity. This article suggests natural disas- ters mainly through the loss of social wealth and stimulating domestic demand to have influences on macroeconomic growth. At the very beginning social wealth losses have a negative influence. After 2 to 3 years of positive effect of stimulating domestic demand. In the long run, negative impact of social wealth loss is more than that of stimulating domestic demand.

关 键 词：自然灾害 直接经济损失 宏观经济增长 内生经济增长理论 

分 类 号：F015[经济管理—政治经济学]