财政支出政策对扩大内需的效应——基于VAR模型的分析框架  

Effects of Fiscal Expenditure Policy to Expand Domestic Demand——Based on the Framework of VAR Model

作　　者：张德勇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国社会科学院财经战略研究院

出　　处：《财贸经济》2013年第8期38-46,共9页Finance & Trade Economics

基　　金：高培勇教授主持的国家社科基金重大招标项目"扩大内需的财税政策研究"(批准号:09&ZD031)的阶段性成果

摘　　要：美国"次贷"危机爆发后,世界经济面临着如何走出低谷的问题。在"次贷"危机的影响下,欧、美、日等主要经济体经济复苏乏力,恢复景气的前景不明,从而对我国扩大外需市场形成较大的冲击,由此也就更加突显了扩大内需在拉动我国经济增长中的积极作用。在促进经济增长的三项因素中,与投资、净出口相比,消费对经济增长有着持续性的推动力。作为重要的宏观调控手段,财政支出政策对于扩大内需发挥了重要的积极作用。本文在理论阐释财政支出对扩大内需的作用机理基础上,运用计量方法实证分析了消费与投资对经济增长的贡献作用,指出消费的贡献要明显大于投资。由此,从财政支出的角度,在加快转变经济发展方式的前提下,本文提出了扩大内需的政策取向。Since the outbreak of the US subprime crisis, the world economy has been facing the problem of how to get out of depression. Under the impact of subprime crisis, economic recovery in the United States, Europe, Japan and other major economies is weak and the prospects for economic recovery is unknown, thus hitting China＇s effort to expand its foreign demand market, which highlights the active role of expanding domestic demand in stimulating China＇s economic growth. Among three factors for economic growth, compared with investment, net export, domestic demand is considered to have a continuing role in promoting economic growth. As an important instrument of macro-regulation, fiscal expenditure policy is essential for expanding domestic demand. Based on the theoretical interpretation of the mechanism of fiscal expenditure to expand domestic demand, the paper empirically analyzes the contribution of consumption and investment to economic growth and points out that the contribution of consumption is significantly greater than investment, Thus, from the perspective of fiscal expenditure, the paper puts forward the policy orientation of expanding domestic demand under the premise of accelerating the transformation of economic development pattern.

关 键 词：内需 财政政策 财政支出 

分 类 号：F812.45[经济管理—财政学] F224