含分布式电源配电网可靠性评估的点估计法  

A Point Estimation Method for Reliability Evaluation of Distribution Network With Distributed Generation

作　　者：芦晶晶[1] 赵渊[2] 赵勇帅[2] 谢开贵[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国农业大学信息与电气工程学院,北京市海淀区100083 [2]输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室(重庆大学),重庆市沙坪坝区400044

出　　处：《电网技术》2013年第8期2250-2257,共8页Power System Technology

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(50977094);中央高校基本科研业务费科研专项的资助(CDJZR11150012);重庆市自然科学基金(CSTC;2011BB6047);输配电装备及系统安全与新技术国家重点实验室自主研究项目(2007 DA10512711208;2007DA10512709103)~~

摘　　要：针对分布式电源输出功率的随机性问题,提出基于点估计法的含分布式电源的配电网可靠性评估模型。点估计法可将概率问题转换为确定性数学问题,依据分布式电源输出功率和配网负荷的概率分布构造其估计点,进一步通过分布式电源出力和负荷水平的估计点与配网可靠性之间的映射关系实现配电网可靠性指标的点估计。对IEEE-RBTS Bus6的主馈线F4进行可靠性评估,分析结果表明点估计法可有效实现分布式电源输出功率和配电网负荷水平不确定性的模拟。In allusion to the randomness of output power of distributed generation（DG）,a point estimation based reliability evaluation model for distribution network with DG is proposed.The point estimation method can turn a probability problem into a deterministic mathematical problem,so the estimation points can be constructed according to DG output and the probability distribution of load in distribution network,and further to implement the point estimation of reliability indices of distribution network according to the mapping relation between the obtained estimation points of DG output and load level and the reliability of distribution network.The reliability evaluation of the main feeder F4 in IEEE-RBTS Bus6 system is performed,and the results show that using the point estimation the simulation of DG output and the uncertainty of load level of distribution network can be effectively implemented.

关 键 词：配电网 点估计法 可靠性评估 分布式电源 

分 类 号：TM721[电气工程—电力系统及自动化]