山东省人口老龄化对城镇居民消费需求的影响-基于六普数据的分析  

The Influence of the Aging Population on the Urban Residents Consumption Demand in Shandong Province:Based on the Sixth Population Censuses Data

作　　者：万克德[1] 宋廷山[2] 郭思亮[2] 

机构地区：[1]齐鲁师范学院继续教育学院 [2]齐鲁师范学院经济学系

出　　处：《中国人口科学》2013年第4期82-88,127,共7页Chinese Journal of Population Science

基　　金：第六次全国人口普查山东省重点研究课题的阶段性研究成果

摘　　要：文章以山东省第六次人口普查数据为基础，运用1995-2010年的相关统计数据，从城镇居民储蓄率、消费规模、消费结构3个方面分析了人口老龄化对居民消费需求影响的方向、大小及程度。结果表明，山东省人口老龄化将会引起城镇居民储蓄率的降低，人口老龄化对储蓄率的影响呈现出正反相错，交替出现的特征，但累积呈现反向影响，且在长期中影响程度保持相对稳定；人口老龄化对城镇居民消费规模具有较为显著的影响，存在长期协整关系，人口老龄化的加剧会引起消费规模的降低，在一定程度上抑制居民的消费能力，不利于扩大内需；人口老龄化的发展将会引起山东省居民食品消费支出的减少，但会促进居民医疗保健、交通和通信消费支出的增加。With reference to relevant economic theory and the sixth census data in Shandong Province,We establish a statistical model on the basis of 1995-2010 statistics data to empirically analyze the direction,size and extent of Shandong's aging impact on consumer demand.Our study finds that in Shandong there has been both ups and downs in the saving rate,but in the long run it is to go down with a stable state.There is a long term negative correlation between urban aging population and its consumption scale.The expanding aging population has remarkably shrunk the urban consumption scale and hence it is not good for domestic demand growth.Although Shandong's urban food expenditure is down,the health care,medical care,transportation and postal and tele-communication expending are going up.it is not good for domestic demand growth. Although Shandong's urban food expenditure is down, the health care, medical care, transportation and postal and tele-communication expending are going up.

关 键 词：人口老龄化 城镇居民 储蓄率 消费规模 消费结构 

分 类 号：F126[经济管理—世界经济] D669.6[政治法律—政治学]