泗合水流域径流变化趋势及其影响因素分析  

Variation Trend of Runoff and Influencing Factor Analysis in Siheshui Basin

作　　者：崔珏[1] 周买春[1] 刘远[1] 黎裕文 

机构地区：[1]华南农业大学水利与土木工程学院,广东广州510642 [2]广东省水文局,广东广州510150

出　　处：《水电能源科学》2013年第8期22-26,共5页Water Resources and Power

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41171029);广东省水利科技创新基金资助项目(2009-42);华南农业大学校长科学基金资助项目(7600-K07050)

摘　　要：采用Mann-Kendall检验法和重标极差法(R/S)分析了泗合水流域1965～2010年全年及年内各时期的降雨量、蒸发量和径流量时间序列变化趋势及其持续性,分离和估算了气候变化和人类活动对径流的影响。结果表明,径流变化受人类活动的影响,但不足以颠覆最大月和旱季两个极端时期的降雨变化趋势。以径流系数突变年份2003年为界,显著变化期与平顺变化期相比,多年平均降雨量和蒸发量分别减少了73、34mm,径流量却减少200mm;并根据平顺变化期的降雨—径流相关关系,估算出显著变化期气候变化与人类活动对径流减少的贡献率分别为33.5%、66.5%。Based on the Mann-Kendall and R/S methods, the variation trend and the persistence of rainfall, evapora- tion and runoff in Siheshui basin in 1965-2010 are analyzed according to their quantities in yearly, wet season and dry season, maximum rainfall month and minimum rainfall month periods. The impact of climate change and human activities on runoff are evaluated, separately. The results show that the runoff is affected by human activities in Siheshui basin; the impact degree, however, does not beyond the change range of rainfall in its maximum month and in dry season, two ex tremes of rainfall; a break point is detected on the yearly runoff coefficient series and it happened in 2003; in significant change period, annual average rainfall and evaporation decreased 73mm and 34 mm, respectively, and annual runoff decreased 200mm than those of smooth change period; according to the relationship between rainfall and runoff in smooth change period, it estimates that the contribution ratio of climate change and human activities on reduction of runoff is 33.5 % and 66.5%, respectively.

关 键 词：径流变化 趋势分析 持续性 气候变化 人类活动影响 

分 类 号：P333[天文地球—水文科学]