面向非常规突发事件演化分析的动态模拟仿真系统  

Dynamic simulation system of unconventional emergency evolution analysis

作　　者：陈雪龙[1] 镇培[1] 肖文辉[1] 

机构地区：[1]大连理工大学管理科学与工程学院,辽宁大连116024

出　　处：《系统工程与电子技术》2013年第8期1777-1789,共13页Systems Engineering and Electronics

基　　金：国家自然科学基金(91024029;71203019);国家社会科学基金(11BGL091);高等学校博士学科点专项科研基金(20110041120028);教育部人文社科基金(11YJC630023)资助课题

摘　　要：建立非常规突发事件演化分析的动态模拟仿真系统对于非常规突发事件的应急管理具有重要意义。针对现有模拟仿真方法与系统在用于非常规突发事件演化分析时存在的不足,尤其难以综合集成多学科、多领域的理论、方法和技术成果的问题,从知识管理以及综合集成的视角,给出了以知识元为基础,以数据、知识、模型融合计算为核心的非常规突发事件演化分析模拟仿真系统的框架体系,并探讨了各子系统的实现。在该系统中,知识元实现了数据、知识、模型的内在关联;通过知识元网络的推理,实现了各学科、各领域数据、知识、模型的动态融合计算,从而进一步实现了非常规突发事件演化分析的模拟仿真。最后,给出了原型系统,并通过泥石流灾害实例,阐述了原型系统的管理与运行过程。Developing a dynamic simulation system of unconventional emergency evolution analysis is of great significance for unconventional emergency management. To cover the shortage of existing simulation methods and systems which are used in unconventional emergency evolution analysis, especially their deficiency in integrating the theories, methods and technology achievements within multidisciplinary and multifield, a framework of unconventional emergency simulation system is proposed based on knowledge unit, and with the fusional computation of data, knowledge and model as the core of the framework. Then the implementation of every subsystem is discussed. In this system, the internal relationships among data, knowledge and model are achieved by the knowledge unit. And through the reasoning of the knowledge unit network, the fusional computation of data, knowledge and model within various disciplines and fields are realized. Then the simulation of unconventional emergency evolution analysis is further achieved. Finally, a prototype of the system is put forward. And the process of management and running of the prototype are illustrated through an example of debris flow disaster.

关 键 词：应急管理 非常规突发事件 模拟仿真 演化分析 

分 类 号：TP391.9[自动化与计算机技术—计算机应用技术]