测量误差对概率积分法参数精度影响  

Analysis of influence of measurement error on probability-integral parameters

作　　者：周大伟[1,2] 吴侃[1,2] 刁鑫鹏[1,2] 陈冉丽[3] 赵鑫[1,2] 张静[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]中国矿业大学环境与测绘学院,江苏徐州221116 [2]中国矿业大学江苏省资源环境信息工程重点实验室,江苏徐州221116 [3]石家庄铁路职业技术学院,河北石家庄050000

出　　处：《辽宁工程技术大学学报（自然科学版）》2013年第3期316-320,共5页Journal of Liaoning Technical University (Natural Science)

基　　金：国家环保公益性行业专项经费资助项目(200809128);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(SA1102);"青蓝工程"资助项目

摘　　要：揭示测量误差对概率积分法参数精度的影响程度问题.采用正交设计的方法对参数因子进行敏感性分析,得到下沉系数和拐点偏移距属敏感因子,主要影响角正切和开采影响传播角为不敏感因子;采用仿真计算的方法分析了测量误差对参数精度的影响.研究结果表明:以测量中误差与最大下沉值的比值作为衡量标准得到,当比值小于7%时求出的参数是可靠的,当比值大于10%时求出的参数是不可靠的.该研究结论放宽了沉陷监测对数据的精度要求,为矿山开采沉陷观测站的观测工作及仪器的选择提供依据.To analyze the influence of measurement error on the parameters of probability integration,the orthogonal design was used to analyze the sensitivity of parameters factors.The results show that subsidence coefficient and the deviation of inflection point are sensitive factors and that the tangent of main effect angle and mining effect transference angle are no sensitive factors.In addition,the simulation method is used to analyze the influence of measurement error on the accuracy of parameters.Taking the ratio（m/W0） of measurement error（m） and maximum subsidence（W0） as a study criterion,the simulation results show that the parameters obtained are reliable when the ratio is less than 7%,and that the parameters are not reliable when the ratio is more than 10%.The conclusion in this study relaxes the required precision on subsidence monitoring data,and provides the basis for measuring mining subsidence in an observation station and selecting monitoring instruments.

关 键 词：测量误差 概率积分法 预计参数 开采沉陷 正交设计 仿真计算 参数敏感性 方差分析 

分 类 号：TD823.7[矿业工程—煤矿开采]