日本海沟大震与华东地区地震的相关性  

Correlativity of seismicity between in the trench area of Japan and in East China area

作　　者：章纯[1] 林命周[1] 蒋淳[2] 

机构地区：[1]上海市地震局,上海200062 [2]天津市地震局,天津300201

出　　处：《华南地震》2000年第3期57-63,共7页South China Journal of Seismology

摘　　要：应用模糊相关方法 ,研究了日本海沟与我国华东地区地震活动的相关性。计算结果表明 :日本海沟地区 (35～ 4 5°N ,140～ 150°E)MS6 8级以上地震和华东地区 (2 9～ 34°N ,119～ 12 4°E)MS4 8级以上地震有较好的相关对应关系 ;用相关分析方法对华东地区尤其是上海附近地区未来发震的可能性进行了分析 ,并估算了两地区延迟相关的平均概率。In this paper, the correlativity of seismicity between in the trench area of Japan and in East China area has been studied. By using the fuzzy correlation method , it is shown that earthquakes with M S≥ 6 8 occurred in the trench areas of Japan (35～45°N, 140～150°E) have a certain correlation to earthquakes with M S≥ 4 8 occurred in East China area. A study on the possibility of earthquakes occurrence in the future in East China , especially in the neighboring region of Shanghai has been undertaken by using the correlative analysis method, and the delayed correlation average probability in the both regions has been estimated.

关 键 词：地震活动性 地震相关方法 模糊识别 日本海沟 

分 类 号：P315.5[天文地球—地震学]