大气平流扩散的箱格预报模型与污染潜势指数预报  

ATMOSPHERIC ADVECTIVE AND DISPERSION NONSTATIC BOX-MODEL FOR PREDICTION OF THE POTENTIAL INDEX OF AIRBORNE POLLUTANT

作　　者：徐大海[1] 朱蓉[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国气象科学研究院,北京100081

出　　处：《应用气象学报》2000年第1期1-12,共12页Journal of Applied Meteorological Science

摘　　要：该文在对平流扩散方程积分的基础上，建立了对初始浓度有记忆力，并对非相邻地区的浓度有感受力的箱格预报模式，该模式的框架可用于各种时、空间尺度或多尺度的空气污染预测、预报．文中还定义了物理意义明确的空气污染潜势指数ＰＰＩ以反映大气通风扩散稀释和干、湿沉降清除大气污染物的总能力，结合天气预报模式和箱格预报模式则可进行空气污染潜势预报．给出了对源强和浓度监测要求灵活的空气污染指数ＰＳＩ的预报公式和方法．在仅使用常规浓度监测资料的条件下，检验了该文的基本方法，其结果看来是可接受的．Besed on the integration of the atmospheric advective and dispersion equation,a nonstatic box model is built up which has memory of previous concentration and may be sensitive to nonadjacent boxes .The frame of the model could be used for prediction of air pollution on various scales.The airborne pollutant potential index( PPI ),which has obvious physical meaning,is also defined to representthe ability to dilute the air pollutants by atmospheric advection and dispersion and/or to clean them out by dry and wet sedimentation. PPI could be used in the nonstatic box model for prediction of the polluted potential in atmosphere.Furthermore,the prognostic formula and procedure for prediction of pollutant standard index( PSI )are given which depend flexibly on the monitored source strength and/or concentration distribution.Using the regular concentration data,the prediction procedure is tested and the results are acceptable.

关 键 词：箱格预报模式 空气污染潜势预报 大气平流扩散 

分 类 号：X51[环境科学与工程—环境工程]