准静电场异常与地震——一种可靠短临地震前兆信息探索  

Anomaly of quasi static electric field and earthquake—exploration of a reliable earthquake precusor

作　　者：郝建国[1] 潘怀文[2] 毛国敏[1] 张云福 唐天明[1] 李德瑞[1] 柳松 

机构地区：[1]中国地震局地球物理研究所,中国北京100081 [2]中国地震局监测预防司,中国北京100036 [3]中国石油天然气总公司,中国北京100724 [4]mericaAirlines,美国得克萨斯州76040

出　　处：《地震地磁观测与研究》2000年第4期3-166,共164页Seismological and Geomagnetic Observation and Research

摘　　要：本专辑通过对白家疃及部分华北地区大气电场观测网点资料与近场地震关系研究 ,系统地介绍一种可靠地震短临前兆信息的探索研究过程及初步结果 ,全文共分为 1 0个专题。首先简要介绍了地震灾害、地震测量和地震烈度。同时简述了国内外有关地震预测研究的看法和争论。并阐述了作者的认识和看法 :经验性的统计预测不应成为地震预测研究的主流和方向 ,确定性地震预测研究才是解决地震预报问题的唯一途径。确定性地震预测研究依赖于可靠地震前兆信息的获得。可靠前兆仅存于能在各种介质中进行连续有效传播并能在地表观测到的物理量中 ,如电场、磁场和重力场。通过对震前动物行为异常、地光等公认宏观地震前兆成因机理研究以及地电、大气电观测研究结果的综合分析后得出 :震前电场异常确有可能成为开展可靠地震短临前兆观测研究的理想领域之一。但其随机性及难于识别和提取等弊端 ,又使其现在还不能成为可靠地震前兆。毋庸置疑 ,信息的微弱性、干扰背景复杂和强烈性是造成上述结果的根本原因。因此 ,选择克服上述弊端的有效观测途径是该领域能否取得进展和突破的关键。在地震电异常的观测研究中 ,弄清其属性对于获得可靠地震前兆信息是至关重要的。低频电具有强电和弱电两种不同的表现形式 ,强电不仅有持续不?Brief Introduction of Contents This monograph systematically described the exploratory process and preliminary research result of a reliable short term and imminent earthquake precursor information by using the data of atmospheric electric field near the ground surface observed at Baijiatuan and in part of the North China region.The whole book consists of ten special topics.First of all,the seismic disaster,seismometry and earthquake intensity are briefly introduced.At the same time,the views and controversies about earthquake prediction in China and other countries are briefly outlined.Besides,the authors' understanding and views are also given:the statistical prediction of empirical nature should not be the main trend and direction of earthquake prediction research;instead,deterministic earthquake prediction research is the unique way for solving the problem of earthquake prediction. Deterministic earthquake prediction research depends on the acquisition of information on reliable earthquake precursors.Reliable precursors exist only in those physical quantities which can propagate continuously and effectively in various media and can be observed near the ground surface,such as the electric field,magnetic field and gravitational field.From the study of the genetic mechanisms of some commonly accepted earthquake precursors such as preseismic animal behavior anomaly,earthquake light,etc.,and the comprehensive analysis of research results of geoelectricity,atmospheric electricity,etc.,it has been known that preseismic anomaly of electric field is indeed possible to become one of the ideal fields for developing observational study of short term and imminent earthquake precursors.However,its drawbacks such as the randomness and difficulty in identification and extraction,etc.,have also made it difficult to become a reliable earthquake precursor.It is beyond doubt that the weakness of information and the complexity and strength of interfering background are the basic causes responsible for the above situation.Ther

关 键 词：准静电场异常 大气静电场 地震前兆 地震预报 

分 类 号：P315[天文地球—地震学]