移动平均数法与泊松分布在手足口病疫情监测预警中的应用  

Application of the Moving Average Method with the Poisson Distribution in the Epidemic Monitoring and Early Warning of Hand-foot-mouth Disease

作　　者：李如[1] 杨健平[1] 廖勇[1] 黄仁发[1] 李会鹏[1] 

机构地区：[1]江西省赣州市疾病预防控制中心,江西赣州341000

出　　处：《实用预防医学》2013年第8期957-958,共2页Practical Preventive Medicine

摘　　要：目的建立可行有效预警预测方法，提高手足口病监测预警能力。方法使用2009—2011年数据建立数据库，应用移动平均数法建立每周手足口病期望发病数，用Poisson检验计算每周暴发的概率，予以判断可能出现的聚集性疫情，并用2012年1—8月份的数据予以验证。结果2012年1—8月份（1～35周）实际报告聚集性疫情33起，分属17个周。使用该法探查出14个周医院报告手足口病异常信号，进一步调查发现11个周次存在聚集性疫情，探查阳性率为78．57％（11／14）；探查出的阳性周次占总阳性周次的64．71％（11／17）；该法发现聚集性疫情25起，占2012年总疫情起数的75．76％（25／33）。结论移动平均数法结合}白松分布可作为手足口病聚集性疫情早期预警的有效方法。Objective To design a viable and effective early warning and forecast method so as to improve the monitoring and early warning capabilities of hand - foot - mouth disease. Methods Alert data based on infectious disease reports from 2009 to 2011 were used to establish a database. Moving average method was employed to set the number of expected cases each week. Poisson distribution was used to detect the probability of outbreak and judge the probability of the aggregation epidemic, and then the data of infectious disease reports from January to August in 2012 were used to verify it. Results There were 33 actual reports of aggregation epidemic onwards from January to August （35 weeks） in 2012, which occured in 17 weeks. Using the moving average method, abnormal signals of hand - foot - mouth disease were probed in 14 weeks, and further investigation showed that aggregation epidemic appeared in 11 weeks, with a positive rate of 78.57 % （11] 14）. The positive weeks probed ac- counted for 64.71% （11/17） of the total positive weeks. 25 reports of aggregation epidemic were found by this method, which occupied 75.76 % （25/33） of the total cases of the epidemic in 2012. Conclusions The moving average method with the Pois- son distribution can be used as an effective method in early warning system of hand - foot - mouth disease.

关 键 词：手足口病 移动平均数法 泊松分布 预警 

分 类 号：R195.1[医药卫生—卫生统计学]