惯性增长下的人口再生产:全国及省级变化  

Reproduction under Inertial Growth in China:National and Provincial Changes

作　　者：宋健[1] 范文婷[2] 

机构地区：[1]中国人民大学人口与发展研究中心 [2]中国人民大学社会与人口学院人口学系

出　　处：《人口研究》2013年第4期33-42,共10页Population Research

基　　金：教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划资助

摘　　要：中国人口仍处于惯性增长阶段,自然增长率为正值且总人口规模不断增加,然而在此表象下,人口再生产模式已呈现萎缩型。文章利用两次全国人口普查数据,分别计算了2000年和2010年全国及各省市自治区的人口再生产指标,并借助净再生产率和平均世代间隔指标对各地区的人口再生产模式进行了聚类分析。结果发现:中国大陆地区人口的内在自然增长率已低于-20‰,人口净再生产率接近0.5,蕴含巨大的负增长惯性势能;31个省市自治区呈现一致的人口再生产缩减态势,且新世纪前10年区域间的差异在缩小;平均世代间隔不断扩大,平均水平已突破28年;部分地区呈现"极晚育极少生"的态势。文章还就数据质量对结果的可能影响进行了讨论。China is still in the process of inertial growth with positive natural increase rate and rising total population size. However, China＇ s population reproductive pattern has changed into that of an in- trinsically negative growth under the surface of positive increase. Using 2000 and 2010 national popula- tion census data, this paper calculates the national and provincial population reproductive indicators in- cluding NRR, T and k in China, and conducts a cluster analysis to classify the 31 provinces, cities and autonomous regions into four groups according to NRR and T. Results indicate that China has seen its intrinsic increase rate below - 20%~ and NRR in 2,000 and 2010 very close to O. 5, implying a huge neg- ative population momentum potential. The population reproductive patterns in 31 regions show consist- ently reducing trends, and gaps among regions are getting smaller in the first decade of the 21st centu- ry. The average lengths between generations are enlarging with a national average level of over 28 years. Such regions as Beijing and Guangdong have presented ＂extremely late childbearing and ex- tremely few children＂ situation. The paper also discusses the possible influence of data defects on the results.

关 键 词：惯性增长 人口再生产 31个省市自治区 聚类分析 人口普查 

分 类 号：C924.24[社会学—人口学]