IP网络流量流向分析与预测技术研究  

Studies on Traffics Analysis and Prediction Technology for Carrier-Grade IP Network

作　　者：欧亮[1] 陈迅[1] 沈晨[1] 黄晓莹[1] 吕屹[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国电信股份有限公司广东研究院,广州510630

出　　处：《电信科学》2013年第7期24-29,共6页Telecommunications Science

摘　　要：概括了网络运营商进行IP网络流量流向分析与预测的主要方法,结合流量分析技术现状和IP网络规划的工程经验,提出一种基于因果分析的高效闭环预测模型,通过分析综合用户行为、流量分布、经济水平等影响因素,可有效评估中长期网络流量的增长趋势,为智能承载网络建设提供重要的设计工具。Main-stream approaches used in traffics analysis and prediction for large-scale carrier-grade IP network were briefly introduced.Based on experiences in traffics engineering and network planning,a causation based loop-back prediction model was proposed which could reflect the factors of user behaviors,traffics distribution and economics level.Moreover,it can not only evaluate long-term tendency for traffics in backbone network,but also provide an important design tool for the carrier’s intelligent infrastructure.

关 键 词：流量分析 流量预测 OD矩阵 智能管道 

分 类 号：TN949.197[电子电信—信号与信息处理]