基于五元联系数的风险综合评价方法及其应用  

Risk comprehensive evaluation method and its application based on the five-element connection number

作　　者：周兴慧[1] 张吉军[1] 

机构地区：[1]西南石油大学经济管理学院,成都610500

出　　处：《系统工程理论与实践》2013年第8期2169-2176,共8页Systems Engineering-Theory & Practice

基　　金："油气藏地质及开发工程"国家重点实验室开放基金(PLN1012);四川石油天然气发展研究中心2009年度重点课题(SKAN09-02)

摘　　要：针对传统风险评价方法不能把系统的确定与不确定同时进行考虑的缺陷,把集对理论运用于风险的评价之中,提出了一种全新的基于集对分析的同异反的五元联系数风险综合评价模型.该模型拓展了对风险评价的数学表达方式,不仅可以对风险进行态势分析,而且也可对风险的发展趋势进行分析,实现了对风险评价时静态与动态的结合.Facing the deficiency that occurs in the traditional risk assessment methods which can＇t consider the certainty and uncertainty of the system, this paper employed set pair theory in risk assessment of system. Based on set pair analysis same-indefinite-contrary, this paper proposes a brand-new five-element connection number comprehensive evaluation model of risk. This model expands the mathematic expression of risk assessment, which can analyzes the situation of the risk and the developing trend of the risk. And then, the model combines the static risk assessment and dynamic risk assessment.

关 键 词：风险评价 集对分析 同异反系统 联系数 

分 类 号：TE88[石油与天然气工程—油气储运工程]