基于KLR噪音信号法和logistic模型的我国农业经济预警  

Research on Agricultural Economic Warning Based on the KLR Noise Signals Law and Logistic Model

作　　者：张宇青[1] 周应恒[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京农业大学经济管理学院

出　　处：《财经科学》2013年第8期109-116,共8页Finance & Economics

摘　　要：构建农业预警指标体系与方法框架对农业经济的稳定增长有重大作用。在对以往研究成果总结的基础上,借鉴有关金融理论构建了我国农业危机压力指数(ACPI),并利用该指数对1987-2011年我国的农业危机状况进行判定;采用噪音-信号(KLR)非参数和格点搜索算法(HGS)对农业预警的先行指标进行了判定,并采取了logistic贡献分析。construct the framework of the agricultural early warning Index System and Method play major role in steady growth of the agricultural economy. On the basis of summing up the results of previous studies, learn about financial theory to build China＇s agricultural crisis pressure index （ACPI）, and use the index to determine the status of China＇s agricultural crisis in 1987- 2010; noise - signal （KLR） non- parameters and grid search algorithm （HGS） determined the leading indicators of agricultural warning and take logistic analysis. Finally, the full - text sunmmry and suggestions for improvement direction, warning for China＇s a- gricultural research have made some contribution.

关 键 词：农业预警 噪音信号法(KLR) LOGISTIC 农业危机压力指数(ACPI) 

分 类 号：F224[经济管理—国民经济] F320