基于多失效模式可靠度的曲线路段行车风险分析  

Reliability-based Risk Analysis of Vehicle Moving on Curved Sections Considering Multiple Failure Modes

作　　者：孙璐[1,2] 游克思[1,3] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学交通学院,江苏南京210096 [2]美国天主教大学土木工程系,华盛顿哥伦比亚特区20064 [3]上海市政工程设计研究总院(集团)有限公司,上海200092

出　　处：《中国公路学报》2013年第4期36-42,共7页China Journal of Highway and Transport

基　　金：美国国家科学基金项目(CMMI-0644552);国家自然科学基金重点项目(U1134206);国家自然科学基金外国青年学者研究基金项目(51150110478;51250110075);"十一五"国家科技支撑计划项目(2009BAG13A02)

摘　　要：根据车辆在曲线路段的事故类型,确定了车辆侧滑、侧翻以及停车视距不足3种行车失效模式的极限状态方程,建立了考虑多失效模式的车辆曲线路段行车可靠性的概率故障树分析模型,并采用蒙特卡罗抽样模拟求解。选取山西省某山区一级公路为例,分别计算了道路11个曲线路段的行车失效概率,并进一步通过定义敏感因子,分析了路段各影响行车安全的危险因素。研究结果表明:可靠性指标可以作为定量化的安全评价指标来反映道路行车安全,实现对各路段间相对安全性能比较及潜在危险路段的识别;敏感因子反映了各危险因素对行车风险的影响程度,为今后安全改善决策提供了依据。The limit state functions of vehicle moving on the curved sections were presented for three failure modes： vehicle sideslipping,rollover and insufficiency of stopping sight distance with reference to accident types of vehicle occurring on the curved sections.A probabilistic fault tree approach was proposed for reliability analysis of vehicle traveling along the curved sections considering multiple failure modes.Monte Carlo sampling was used for solution.11 curved sections in Shanxi Province were chosen,and the reliability of each section was calculated.The sensitive factor was defined to analyze risk factors affecting safety.The results show that reliability index can be used for the quantitative risk evaluation,to compare relative safety performances of sections and to identify hazard location.The sensitive factor can be used for reflecting the extent of influences of risk factors on safety,which will provide helpful guide for the future safety improvement.

关 键 词：道路工程 道路安全 多失效模式 可靠性 蒙特卡罗抽样 

分 类 号：U414.1[交通运输工程—道路与铁道工程]