近300年来中国人口变化及时空分布格局  

Population change and spatiotemporal distribution of China in recent 300 years

作　　者：潘倩[1] 金晓斌[1] 周寅康[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京大学地理与海洋科学学院,南京210093

出　　处：《地理研究》2013年第7期1291-1302,共12页Geographical Research

基　　金：国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)(2011CB952001)

摘　　要：基于人口地理学相关理论,以近300a为时间尺度,以省域为空间单元,利用经修正的清朝、民国及建国后286个时相的人口数据,建立1724年、1767年、1812年、1855年、1898年、1936年、1982年和2009年8个典型时间断面,通过不均衡指数、集中指数、分布重心和空间自相关等分析方法,研究了近300a来中国人口数量变化及时空分布格局。结果表明:①近300a来中国人口数量波动上升,按增长曲线特征可分为较快稳定增长期、快速波动负增长期、低速平稳增长期、无序跌宕增长期、急剧波动增长期5个阶段;②人口分布逐渐趋于均衡,人口重心迁移幅度不大,总体呈西南—西北—东北—西北的移动趋势;③人口分布保持高度自相关,聚集程度波动变化,其中,华东的沪苏地区、山东省、安徽省、浙江省为稳定人口高密度聚集区,华中的河南省为较稳定人口高密度聚集区,西南、西北部分省份为稳定人口低密度聚集区,华北的内蒙古自治区为较稳定人口低密度聚集区,东北的黑龙江省、吉林省为不稳定人口低密度聚集区。Based on the correlation theories of population geography,this study set 300 years as the time scale,took provinces as spatial units,and researched into the quantitative change,the temporal and spatial pattern of China＇s population.Using the revised population data of 286 time phases of Qing Dynasty,the Republic of China and new China,the study established 1724,1767,1812,1855,1898,1936,1982 and 2009 as 8 typical time sections.Analysis methods included unbalanced coefficient,concentration index,gravity center and spatial autocorrelation.The results showed that：（1） The population of China in recent 300 years presented a fluctuating rising trend.According to the feature of the growth curve,5 stages could be identified,namely relatively rapid stable growth period,rapid wavelike reduction period,slow steady growth period,disordered undulate growth period and sharp wavelike growth period.（2） China＇s population in recent 300 years gradually tended to be evenly distributed;the population gravity center moved in a narrow range,generally shifting along the route of south-west,south-east,north-east,and north-west.（3） The distribution of China＇s population in recent 300 years showed a high autocorrelation,with the aggregation level fluctuating.Among them,Jiangsu Province,Shanghai,as well as provinces of Shandong,Anhui and Zhejiang in eastern China were stable aggregation zones with high density population;Henan Province in Central China was relatively stable aggregation zone with high density population;some provinces in southwest and northwest China were stable aggregation zones with low density population;Inner Mongolia in North China was stable aggregation zone with relatively low density population and Heilongjiang and Jilin provinces were unstable aggregation zones with low density population.

关 键 词：人口 分布格局 人口重心 空间自相关 300年 中国 

分 类 号：C922[社会学—人口学] K207[历史地理—历史学]