我国物流业对环境影响的动态效应研究——基于非限制性VAR模型的经验  

Dynamic Effects of China’s Logistics Industry Impact on the Environment: Based on the Experience of the Non-restrictive VAR Model

作　　者：上官绪明[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]信阳师范学院,河南信阳464000 [2]中央财经大学,北京100081

出　　处：《生态经济》2013年第8期111-114,143,共5页Ecological Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目(71272235);河南省教育厅科学技术研究重点项目(13A790764);信阳师范学院青年骨干教师项目

摘　　要：以非限制性VAR模型为基础,考察了我国1990～2010年碳排放量与物流业之间的动态演进关系。由OLS估计协整方程得出我国物流业增加值每增加1%将引起CO2排放增加0.573%;由脉冲响应函数对短期动态关系作进一步分析表明,物流业的快速发展导致能源消耗的增长,从而引起碳排放量上升,而碳排放量的增加也会抑制物流业的发展,但其影响存在一定的滞后期。Base on non-restrictive VAR model,this paper analyses dynamic evolution relationship between our country carbon emissions and logistics industry from 1990 to 2010.Added value of logistics every 1% increase will cause an increase of 0.337% in CO2 emissions by OLS estimated co integration equation;further analysis showed that the shortterm dynamic relationship by the impulse response function,the rapid development of the logistics industry has led to the growth of energy consumption causing the rise in carbon emissions,while the increase in carbon emissions,in turn,will inhibit the development of the logistics industry and there is a certain lag period.

关 键 词：物流业 碳排放 CO2 非限制性VAR模型 

分 类 号：F252[经济管理—国民经济] F224