基于状态空间模型和多层模型的广东城乡消费差异研究  

A Study of the Difference of Consumption Level Based on State Space Model and Multilevel Model

作　　者：李景海[1] 王克林 

机构地区：[1]广东商学院国民经济研究中心,广东广州510320 [2]国家统计局深圳调查队,广东深圳518031

出　　处：《统计与信息论坛》2013年第7期76-81,共6页Journal of Statistics and Information

基　　金：广东省哲学社会科学规划项目<以重塑区域协作的发展机制推动产业转型升级>(GD12CYJ04);广东商学院国民经济研究中心研究课题<广东城镇居民地区消费差异研究>(2012XMA10)

摘　　要：运用状态空间模型和多层模型,从宏观与微观、横向与纵向多个维度对改革开放以来广东省城乡居民消费差异影响因素的特征进行了刻画,对场景变量影响城乡消费差异的程度进行测度。研究表明:边际消费倾向、物价水平、恩格尔系数这三个因素对城镇和农村居民消费的影响规律相似,但从整体上看,前两个变量对城镇居民消费影响的波动更剧烈;与2005年相比,2010年城乡居民的整体消费水平不断提高,但城乡之间消费的绝对差距、城乡居民的边际消费倾向都在减小;城乡之间消费环境的差距使城乡居民消费差距不断扩大;社会投资水平对城乡消费的影响力度在逐渐上升。From macroscopic and microcosmic, transverse and lengthways point of view , using state space model and multilevel model, this paper studies the factors of c difference of consumption level since the Chinese economic reform, and depicts theirs characters, and measures the effect degree of contextual variables. The conclusions are that marginal propensity to consumption, price and Engel coefficient have similar effect trend to urban and rural residents＂ difference of consumption level, but on the whole, comparing to Engel coefficient, the first two factors have more dramatic effects on rural residents than on urban residents. Comparing with 2005, in 2010 both rural residents＂ consumption level is rising, but the absolute gap is widening, and the marginal propensity to consumption of urban and rural residents is falling. The difference of consumption environment between city and countryside widening the gap, and the effect of total investment in fixed assets on urban and rural residents＂ consumption is rising.

关 键 词：消费差异 状态空间模型 多层模型 广东省 

分 类 号：F014.5[经济管理—政治经济学] O212.4[理学—概率论与数理统计]