区域经济发展、效率改进与能源消费的动态关系研究——以江苏省为例  

Dynamic relationships among regional economic development,efficiency improvement and energy consumption:a case study of jiangsu Province

作　　者：徐立霞[1] 李昌峰[1] 杨艳琴 

机构地区：[1]南京财经大学经济学院,江苏南京210023 [2]潍坊密城学校,山东潍坊261300

出　　处：《中国矿业大学学报（社会科学版）》2013年第2期35-40,共6页Journal of China University of Mining & Technology(Social Sciences)

基　　金：全国统计科学研究计划重点项目(项目编号:2012LZ004);江苏省高校哲学社会科学研究项目(项目编号:2013SJB790058);南京财经大学科研项目(项目编号:C0915);江苏高校优势学科建设资助项目

摘　　要：本文采用协整分析理论、误差修正模型研究了江苏省1985-2009年间能源消费,经济增长以及能源效率改进之间的长期关系和短期变动。在此基础上通过向量自回归模型采用脉冲响应函数、方差分解模型对能源消费及其影响因素之间的作用机理进行系统分析,研究结果表明:长期看来能源消费、经济增长、能源效率三者之间存在稳定的长期静态关系,能源需求的短期变动虽然会受到其他因素的影响,但影响程度不大,系统自身具有的反向修正机制可以有效调节三者之间的短期偏离;而相应的评价准则也说明了该模型具有较强的预测能力;在对各重要因素的影响路径和影响程度的研究上发现,在现有的产业结构和增长方式下,经济增长对江苏省能源消费的作用力度最大,效率改进对能源消费有积极的作用,但其贡献度不大,仍有一定的提升空间。最后在研究基础上从调整产业结构,推进技术创新和完善制度管理等方面提出了江苏省有关节能降耗,提高能源使用效率的对策建议。The dynamic relationship of energy consumption,economic growth and energy efficiency in Jiangsu Province since 1985 was studied in the use of co-integration analysis and error correction model.Based on the above analysis,the paper systematically investigates the impulse response function and variance decomposition model on mechanism of energy consumption and its influence factor by means of vector autoregression.The empirical results show that： there is a long-run equilibrium relation among the three variables;although the short-run fluctuation can be influenced by other factors,there is only little influence;the reverse correction mechanism that the system owns by itself can effectively adjust the short-term deviation among the three variables while the corresponding evaluation indexes indicate that future value can be forecasted effectively.Based on the study of various influence paths and degree,it can find that economic growth has great influence on energy consumption and efficiency improvement,and has positive influence on energy consumption,but has little influence on it and there is still a certain ascending space.Finally,based on the previous results,some countermeasures and suggestions on improving energy efficiency and saving energy are proposed from the aspects of changing economic structure,promoting technological innovation and improving management system.

关 键 词：协整 误差修正模型 脉冲响应 方差分解 

分 类 号：F224.0[经济管理—国民经济]