我国情报服务的发展趋势——预测性情报服务  

The Developing Trend of China's Intelligence Services——The Predictive Intelligence Service

作　　者：贺晓利[1] 刘武英[1] 

机构地区：[1]陕西省科技信息研究所,陕西西安710054

出　　处：《现代情报》2013年第8期98-102,共5页Journal of Modern Information

摘　　要：分析了我国情报机构服务和预测性情报服务的状况,指出预测性情报服务是我国情报服务的发展趋势。阐述了预测性情报服务的内涵和外延,预测性情报服务与情报服务和文献服务的关系。探讨了预测性情报服务的关键性问题,并从情报工作者和政府两个层面提出了做好预测性情报服务的策略。最后得出三点结论与启示:第一,情报预测是情报研究的内容之一;第二,情报研究不仅是要研究解决当前问题,更重要的是要有长远眼光,能预测未来,起到参谋作用,以趋利避害;第三,政府应出台相应措施,推动预测服务的发展。The paper analyzed the current states of the intelligence agency service and the predictive intelligence service in China and pointed out that the later would be the developing trend of China＇s intelligence services.The ideas and scopes of the predictive intelligence service,as well as its relationship with intelligence services and documentation services were elaborated.Key points about it were discussed and some strategies for a better predictive intelligence service were put forward in terms of the intelligence staff and the government.It was concluded that intelligence prediction was one part of the intelligence research which not only researches and solved the current problems but also predicted the ones in the long run.In that case the prediction could be referred to so that something unfavorable would be avoided.In addition,the government should come up with related measures to promote the development of the predictive intelligence service.

关 键 词：中国 情报研究 情报服务 预测性情报服务 

分 类 号：G250.2[文化科学—图书馆学]