灰色系统与时间序列在高铁沉降变形中的应用  

Application of Grey System and Time Series in High-speed Railway Settlement Deformation

作　　者：袁明月[1,2] 周吕[1,2] 文鸿雁[1,2] 韩亚坤[1,2] 

机构地区：[1]桂林理工大学测绘地理信息学院,广西桂林541006 [2]桂林理工大学广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室,广西桂林541006

出　　处：《地理空间信息》2013年第4期131-133,189,共3页Geospatial Information

基　　金：国家自然科学基金资助项目(41071294);广西空间信息与测绘重点实验室资助课题(桂科能1207115-06;1103108-02);研究生教育创新计划资助项目(YCSZ2012083);大学生创新创业训练计划资助项目(201210596003)

摘　　要：介绍了灰色系统GM(1,1)模型、时间序列二次指数平滑模型的基本原理,给出了模型精度评定的方法 ;用Matlab编程实现模型的建立并对高速铁路沉降变形进行了分析与预测,通过工程实例对比分析2种模型的预测效果。结果表明,时间序列二次指数平滑模型较适合短期或中期变形趋势呈线性或微小波形的变形分析与预测,而GM(1,1)模型对短期呈线性或指数分布趋势的变形有较好的效果;时间序列二次指数平滑模型的可靠性与准确度比GM(1,1)模型高。This paper introduced the basic principle of grey system GM(1,1) model and time-series second exponential smoothing model,and gave the method of model accuracy evaluation.It used Matlab programming to establish models,analyzed and predicted the settlement deformation of high-speed railway.And then,through the engineering examples,it compared and analyzed the prediction effect of two models.The results show that time-series second exponential smoothing model is more suitable for short-term and longer term deformation analysis and prediction and deformation trend is linear or exponential.GM(1,1) model shows a better effect in short-term deformation analysis and prediction and deformation trend is linear or exponential.The reliability and accuracy of the time-series analysis model second exponential smoothing is much higher than GM(1,1) model.

关 键 词：高铁沉降 灰色系统 时间序列 变形预测 

分 类 号：P258[天文地球—测绘科学与技术]