1962—2007年广东干湿时空变化特征分析  

Analyzing the spatial-temporal variation of wet and dry spells during 1962—2007 in Guangdong province

作　　者：陈子燊[1] 黄强[1] 刘曾美[2] 

机构地区：[1]中山大学水资源与环境系,广东广州510275 [2]华南理工大学水利水电系,广东广州510640

出　　处：《水科学进展》2013年第4期469-476,共8页Advances in Water Science

基　　金：广东水利创新项目(2009-41);国家自然科学基金资助项目(50839005)~~

摘　　要：利用广东省74个气象站点1962—2007年的月降水与气温数据,计算多时间尺度的标准化蒸散发指数,采用旋转经验正交函数(REOF)、Mann-Kendall趋势检验和小波分析等方法分析广东近50年来的干湿时空变化特征。研究结果表明:①广东20世纪70年代以来干旱发生事件随时间持续增多,空间范围扩展;②根据REOF时空分解的前6个空间模态,可以将广东划分成6个干湿特征区域,分别位于珠江三角洲、韩江流域及东江流域上游、西江流域及北江中下游流域、粤东沿海区域、北江上游区域和粤西沿海区域;③广东干湿发展具有明显的东西部差异性,其中西江流域和北江中下游流域、雷州半岛为主的粤西沿海流域存在着显著的干旱趋势;④6个分区干湿变化普遍具有2～8年的振荡周期,但最强振荡周期有所差别。The muhi-scale standardized precipitation and evapotranspiration index （SPEI） is calculated using the monthly precipitation and temperature data observed at 74 meteorological stations during 1962-2007 in Guang- dong. The spatial-temporal variation of wet and dry spells is analyzed using the methods of the rotated empirical orthog- onal function （REOF） , the Mann-Kendall trend test and the wavelet analysis. Results show that both the frequency and spatial extent of drought have i：lcreased over time since the 1970s. The whole Guangdong can be divided into six wet and dry regions based on the first six modes of REOF. These regions are located in the Pearl River Delta, the up- per Hanjiang River and Dongjiang River basins, the Xijiang River basin and the middle and lower Beijiang River ba- sin, the eastern coastal district, the upper Beijiang River basin, and the western coastal district. The trend of wet and dry spells in Guangdong varies significantly across the province from east to east. Significant upward trends in drought have been detected in the Leizhou Peninsula, the Xijiang River basin and the middle and lower Beijiang River basin, the western coastal district. In addition, the temporal variation of wet and dry spells exhibits a periodic oscillation of period of 2 to 8 years in the six regions.

关 键 词：干湿时空变化 标准蒸散发指数 旋转经验正交函数 小波分析 广东 

分 类 号：P429[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]