2013年7月全国突发公共卫生事件及需关注的传染病风险评估  

Risk assessment of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China,July 2013

作　　者：洪志恒[1] 涂文校[1] 王锐[1] 王环宇[2] 高荣保[2] 邢薇佳[1] 张倩[1] 任婧寰[1] 雷苏文[1] 孟玲[1] 张甜[1] 赵梦娇[1] 倪大新[1] 金连梅[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国疾病预防控制中心,北京102206 [2]中国疾病预防控制中心病毒病预防控制所

出　　处：《疾病监测》2013年第7期516-520,共5页Disease Surveillance

摘　　要：目的评估2013年7月我国突发公共卫生事件及需要关注的传染病风险。方法根据全国突发公共卫生事件报告及重点传染病监测等各种监测资料和部门通报信息,采用专家会商法进行评估。结果随着暑期到来,预计7月全国突发公共卫生事件总报告事件数和病例数将有所下降。肠道传染病和虫媒传染病已进入流行季节;疟疾仍存在因输入导致局部暴发的可能;手足口病总体疫情呈现下降趋势,但报告病例数、重症数和死亡数仍将继续保持较高水平;食物中毒事件数仍维持较高的水平。中东呼吸综合征的疫情进展和国际应对情况仍需密切关注。此外,还应关注气象及自然灾害可能导致的次生公共卫生风险。结论预计2013年7月我国的突发公共卫生事件及传染病疫情发生态势与往年7月类似,需重点关注中东呼吸综合征及食物中毒事件。Objective Assess the risk of public health emergency and concerned infectious diseases in China, July 2013. Methods Semi-structured interviews and discussions among subject matter experts are performed based on surveillance data and public institute bulletins, et al. Results As the summer vacation approach, the number of the reported national public health emergency events for July may see a downtrend. But July is the high season for the enteric infectious disease and insect-borne infectious disease happening. The reported case number of hand, foot and mouth disease （HFMD） will be lower than June, but is still on a high level. Food-poisoning events may still on the rise. As the Middle East Respiratory Syndrome （MERS） cases number is still increasing, it should get the global attention. In July, the secondary public health impact could be caused by climate condition and nature disaster. Conclusion It is expected that the national public health emergencies and epidemic situation of infectious diseases in July 2013, would be similar as the July before. We need to strengthen surveillance and preparedness for MERS and food poisoning.

关 键 词：突发公共卫生事件 传染病疫情 风险评估 

分 类 号：R181.3[医药卫生—流行病学]