Regional Correlation and Spatial Spillovers in China's Regional Economic Growth  

中国的区域关联与经济增长的空间溢出效应(英文)

作　　者：潘文卿 

机构地区：[1]School of Economics and Management, Tsinghua University

出　　处：《Social Sciences in China》2013年第3期125-139,共15页中国社会科学（英文版）

基　　金：funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.70873071;71173132);the National Social Science Fund(10ZD&007)

摘　　要：Using an exploratory spatial data analytical tool, this paper examines the spatial distribution patterns and features of GDP per capita in each of China＇s provinces. The results indicate that a positive global spatial autocorrelation exists and increases over time. At the same time, local correlation shows that China＇s local spatial agglomeration is becoming ever more marked. Based on a new economic geography model signaling the effects of market potential on regional economic development, this paper further investigates spatial spillover effects on Chinese regional economic growth through econometric analysis. Our empirical analysis shows that spatial spillovers play an important role in China＇s regional economic development. Every 1 percent increase in market potential leads to an increase of 0.47 percent in regional GDP per capita, outperforming increases in regional fixed assets investment in terms of elasticity. Of course, our analysis also shows that spatial spillover effects decrease as inter-regional distance increases.本文使用探索性空间数据分析工具研究了1988-2009年间中国各省区人均GDP的空间分布格局与特征,结果显示,一方面,存在着全域范围的正的空间自相关性,并且这种相关性随着时间的推移在增大;另一方面,局域相关也显示出中国局域性的空间集聚特征越来越明显。以一个表征市场潜能对地区经济发展影响的新经济地理学模型为基础,本文通过计量分析进一步考察了中国区域经济发展的空间溢出效应。经验分析表明,空间溢出效应是中国地区经济发展不可忽视的重要影响因素,市场潜能每增长1%,地区人均GDP增长率将提高0.47%,超过了地区固定资产投资增长的弹性值。当然,实证分析也发现这种空间溢出效应会随着地区间距离间隔的增加而减少。

关 键 词：regional linkage economic growth spatial spillover effects 

分 类 号：F127[经济管理—世界经济]