美国量化宽松政策国际传导机制及其冲击效应——基于金砖四国的数据分析  

The International Transmission Mechanism and Shock Effect of US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy——Based on the Data Analysis of the BRIC Countries

作　　者：郑征[1] 刘晓星[1] 

机构地区：[1]东南大学经济管理学院,南京211189

出　　处：《科技与经济》2013年第4期91-95,共5页Science & Technology and Economy

基　　金：国家自然科学基金项目--"全球化条件下中国新型金融监管体系构建及其有效性研究"(项目编号:70973028;项目负责人:刘晓星)成果之一;国家自然科学基金项目--"全球化条件下流动性冲击金融系统稳定的传导扩散机制及其监控研究"(项目编号:71273048;项目负责人:刘晓星)成果之一

摘　　要：在分析美国货币政策国际传导机制的基础上,运用SVAR模型,研究美国量化宽松政策对金砖四国产出水平、物价水平、货币政策、出口贸易的冲击。研究表明:美国量化宽松政策对金砖四国经济变量有较高的影响力,对四国货币政策产生长期的负向冲击;对四国产出水平有短期的负向冲击,但长期转变为持续增加的正向冲击;对出口贸易产生短期的正向冲击,但长期转变为趋向于0的负向冲击;对印度和俄罗斯带来了短期的输入型通货膨胀,长期将影响中国的物价水平。Based on the analysis of the international transmission mechanism of US monetary policy, this paper uses SVAR model to study shock effect of US Quantitative Easing Monetary Policy on BRIC＇s output, price level, monetary policy and the export trade. Research shows that US Quantitative Easing Policy has great influence on BRIC＇s economic variables and long-term negative influence on BRIC＇s monetary policy. Although it has a short-term negative impact on output, long-term continuously-increasing impact will be positive. It also has short-term positive impact on export trade and tends to become negative shock for a long time. The QE Policy brings imported inflation to India and Russia and affects China＇s price level for a long time.

关 键 词：货币政策 国际传导机制 冲击效应 金砖四国 

分 类 号：F827.12[经济管理—财政学] F114F224