基于贝叶斯网络的组织因素对船员疲劳的影响分析  

Bayesian Network-based Analysis of Effects of Organizational Factors on Seafarer's Fatigue

作　　者：林文闻[1] 黄淑萍[1] 

机构地区：[1]上海交通大学船舶海洋与建筑工程学院,上海200240

出　　处：《中国安全科学学报》2013年第6期26-31,共6页China Safety Science Journal

基　　金：国家"973"计划项目(2010CB734103)

摘　　要：为预防由船员疲劳引起的船舶驾驶事故,探讨组织环境对疲劳的深层次影响,构建航运企业组织因素对船员疲劳影响机理的贝叶斯网络。依托已有的组织行为学、心理学等理论以及国际性海事报告、专家经验等进行建模,对网络结点状态进行分类和赋值,并通过计算分析,研究网络结点不同状态下的船员疲劳水平。计算结果表明:从事近海运输的小企业的船员更易疲劳;提高激励水平并非鼓舞士气的充分条件;在企业内获得认可且加以贯彻的安全文化对缓解船员疲劳具有隐性而长期的正面影响。将贝叶斯网络引入到量化分析组织因素对疲劳影响的研究中,计算结果符合经验性认知,模型允许在更多数据支撑下逐步逼近真实值。To prevent potential maritime safety hazard caused by seafarer~ fatigue, a Bayesian network describing how organizational factors affect seafarer~ fatigue in maritime shipping industries was construe- ted. Based on existing theories of organizational behavior, human resource management and after integra- ting released international maritime reports and experts＂ experience, a model was built and the nodes were assigned value and status. Through calculating, the seafarer~ fatigue level was studied under different or- ganizational conditions. The calculation results show that seafarers working in small shipping companies with frequent short sea business are easier to get tired, that rise in motivation is not the sufficient condition for motivating seafarers, that a commonly-agreed safety culture with deep enforcement may help alleviating fatigue,and that the network~ validity is proved by realistic experience.

关 键 词：贝叶斯网络 航运安全 船员疲劳 航运企业 组织因素 安全文化 

分 类 号：X951[环境科学与工程—安全科学]