再分析温度资料与西藏地区冬、夏季观测气温的比较  

Comparison of Reanalysis Data and Observation about Summer/Winter Surface Air Temperature in Tibet

作　　者：孙玉婷[1] 高庆九[1] 闵锦忠[1] 

机构地区：[1]南京信息工程大学气象灾害省部共建教育部重点实验室/大气科学学院,江苏南京210044

出　　处：《高原气象》2013年第4期909-920,共12页Plateau Meteorology

基　　金：公益性行业专项(GYHY200806029);江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目(PAPD)

摘　　要：利用西藏地区地面气温(OT)及NCEP/NCAR(NT1)、ERA-40(ET1)、NCEP/DOE(NT2)、ERA-Interim(ET2)和JRA-25(JT)五种月平均2m气温再分析资料,对其气候均值、方差、气候趋势及年际和年代际变化等进行了分析和评估。结果表明:(1)五种再分析资料对西藏地区冬、夏季气温的估计均偏低,且冬季偏低大于夏季;经地形高度差订正,再分析资料与观测气温的偏差明显缩小,ET1、ET2和JT效果最佳;(2)西藏冬、夏季气温北部变化大、南部变化小,冬季变化大于夏季。ET1、ET2和JT对西藏东部气温年际变率的再现能力略强于NT1,在中西部,ET1、ET2、JT和NT1再现能力相当;NT2对年际变率的估计较差;(3)西藏大部分地区OT有明显增温趋势,冬季增温大于夏季,再分析资料增温不明显;(4)NT1与ET1均不能反映OT所具有的20世纪80年代以前多低于均值,80年代初期到90年代后期接近均值,此后高于均值的年代际变化特征;(5)ET2和JT对均值、年际变化和变率特征的描述较为接近,且优于NT2;(6)再分析资料温度与观测温度空间分布的相似性从高到低依次为JT>ET2>ET1>NT1>NT2。Using in-situ observed summertime/wintertime air temperatures（OT） in Tibet,2 m temperature reanalysis data of the NCEP/NCAR（NT1）,the ERA-40（ET1）,the NCEP/DOE（NT2）,the ERA-Interim（ET2） and the JRA-25（JT） on a monthly basis,climate mean,variance,climate trend,interannual and interdecadal variability are explored.The results show that：（1） The values of the five reanalysis temperatures on Tibet are lower than that of observations,and the departure is greater in winter.After the terrain height revision,the differences decrease distinctly,especially ET1,ET2 and JT.（2） The variations of OT are greater in northern Tibet than that in southern and in winter than in summer in most areas.In eastern Tibet,ET1,ET2 and JT data ability to reproduce the interannual variation of air temperatures is higher than NT1 data,in the midwestern Tibet,the four data are fairly;but NT2 data are poor.（3） While OT has the significant linear warming trend,and the trend is much greater in winter than in summer in most of Tibet,no trend is observed in reanalysis data.（4） Both NT1 and ET1 can not reflect the interdecadal variation of OT with features that is smaller value than average before 1980,keeping average during the period of early 1980 to late 1990,and shifting to a higher value than average in recent two decades.（5） ET2 and JT are close and can better to represent the observed climate mean,interannual variation and variability than NT2.（6） The order of similarity of distributions for correlation coefficient between observations and reanalysis temperature is JTET2ET1NT1NT2 from small to big in winter and summer.

关 键 词：西藏地区 地面气温 再分析资料 ERA-INTERIM 气候变化 

分 类 号：P423.3[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]