新发艾滋病感染者治疗依从性的Probit模型分析  

Probit Model for the New AIDS Infestors Treatment Compliance

作　　者：张连生[1] 黄琴琴[1] 刘雷[1] 刘丹[1] 

机构地区：[1]武汉科技大学医学院预防医学系,430065

出　　处：《中国卫生统计》2013年第4期487-489,共3页Chinese Journal of Health Statistics

基　　金：湖北省人文社科重点研究基地--湖北非营利组织研究中心项目(HBNP02012ZD003)

摘　　要：【提要】目的运用数学模型拟合艾滋病感染者治疗依从性保持率的变动规律，为合理、适时采取干预措施提供理论依据。方法收集某市2001—2012年新发艾滋病感染者的数据资料，运用SPSSl5．0软件进行Probit模型拟合。结果累积新发感染者治疗依从性保持率r（t）的模型为r（t）=1-Φ[-0．865＋0．733×In（t）]，（x2=5．306，P=0．807），11年中最大相对误差仅为5．96％，拟合中位数为3．25年。结论运用Probit建立的新发艾滋病感染者治疗依从性保持率模型拟合度较好。模型显示，该市的新发感染者在1～3年内治疗依从性保持率的变化幅度很大，在此之后变化幅度减小。对新发感染者要在检测阳性结果的前3年采取主动有效干预措施，可较好地避免感染者流失。Objective To study the altering regularity of the maintaining rate of treatment compliance of the new AIDs infestors w ith mathematical model,in order to provide theoretical evidence for reasonable and timely interventions.Methods The data of the new AIDs infestors w as collected from 2001 to 2012 in a certain city.The Probit model w as used to analysis the new AIDs infestors cumulative maintaining rate by using SPSS15.0 softw are.Results The model of the new AIDs infestors cumulative maintaining rate is r(t) = 1-Φ〔-0.865 + 0.733 × In(t) 〕,χ2= 5.306,P = 0.807,the maximum error of 11year is as low as 5.96% sonly 5.96%,and the estimated fitting median is 3.25years).Conclusion The model of new AIDs infestors cumulative maintaining rate fits w ell.It indicates the amplitude of the new AIDs infestors cumulative maintaining rate changes remarkably in the first three years.Afterw ards,the change in amplitude reduces.For the new AIDs infestors,the activeness intervention measures are adopted in the first three years,so to avoid the loss for infestors.Given active interventions are meted out for the new AIDs infectors,the loss of infectors could be avoided effectively.

关 键 词：治疗依从性 感染者保持率 PROBIT模型 

分 类 号：R311[医药卫生—基础医学]