供应链道德风险逾渗的临界状态研究  

Percolation’s Criticality of Moral Hazards in Supply Chain

作　　者：徐绪松[1] 郑小京[1,2] 郑湛[3] 

机构地区：[1]武汉大学经济与管理学院,湖北武汉430072 [2]哈尔滨商业大学商业经济研究院,黑龙江哈尔滨150076 [3]武汉大学国际软件学院,湖北武汉430072

出　　处：《中国管理科学》2013年第4期53-61,共9页Chinese Journal of Management Science

摘　　要：为了确定能将供应链道德风险控制在不对供应链造成重大危害的临界点,构建以人为力度的供应链道德风险复杂网络模型,并据此给出供应链道德风险诱发的传递特性和拓扑特性的变化规律。按照逾渗理论,根据供应链中道德风险传递的特征,以随机攻击与蓄意攻击两种方式控制供应链道德风险的传递过程,确定出在随机攻击与蓄意攻击两种策略下,需要控制的最小数量的员工,从而确定供应链道德风险逾渗的临界状态。结论认为,随机攻击时供应链道德风险系统呈现鲁棒性,而蓄意攻击时供应链道德风险系统呈现脆弱性,蓄意攻击供应链道德风险这种策略是非常有效,并且这种临界概率取决于供应链系统的结构以及道德风险的特征。To quantify the critical point of controlling moral hazard keeping supply chain from operating normal, a complex networks model of moral hazards in supply chain, with perspective of people in this system, is constructed, and the properties of inducing and transferring moral hazards in supply chain and the law of topological evolution of supply chain moral hazards system are given. By invoking percolation theory and the corresponding methods coupling with the property of transferring character of moral hazards in supply chain, control moral hazards and their transferring process according to random attack and intention attack, respectively, and the minimization number of the employees should be controlled, so as to give the percolation criticality of moral hazards in supply chain. It is concluded that random attack makes moral hazards robustness but intention attack make them vulnerability, Furthermore, the intention attack to moral hazards in supply chain is effective, and the probability of controlling moral hazards of intention attack in supply chain is decided by the configuration of supply chain with perspective of staffs and the property of moral hazards.

关 键 词：供应链道德风险 逾渗 临界状态 随机攻击 蓄意攻击 仿真 

分 类 号：TP18[自动化与计算机技术—控制理论与控制工程]