服务出口潜力与服务业发展的关系  

Relationship between Export Potentials in Service and Growth of the Service Industry

作　　者：李惠娟[1] 

机构地区：[1]广州大学旅游学院,广东广州510006

出　　处：《国际商务（对外经济贸易大学学报）》2013年第3期5-15,共11页INTERNATIONAL BUSINESS

基　　金：教育部人文社科基金项目"区域旅游发展的广域产业集群研究"(项目批准号:10YJCZH195);主持人:薛莹

摘　　要：本文利用2010年44个国家11个服务行业的双边服务贸易流量估计引力模型,回归分析服务业出口潜力对服务业发展的影响程度,进而估算中国对主要贸易伙伴国的出口潜力并做评价。结果表明,服务行业的出口潜力对服务业增长有明显的拉动作用,其中,生产性服务业的出口弹性比生活性服务业的出口弹性高,发达国家的服务出口弹性高于发展中国家。总体而言,我国对主要贸易伙伴国服务出口呈"过度贸易"状态。从行业来看,除了专有权利使用费和特许费、保险业属于"贸易不足"外,我国其他服务行业"过度贸易"。By drawing on data of bilateral service trade of 44 countries and combining Gravity Model of trade, this paper presents a regression analysis of the influence of export potentials of services on the development of the service industry, and then evaluates and appraises China＇ s export potentials towards its major trading partners. The results show that export potentials in service have a great promoting effect on the growth of the services industry. It is also found that the elasticity of export in producer services is higher than that in consumer services, and the elasticity of export in developed countries exceeds that in developing countries. This paper estimates China＇ s export potentials in service and concludes that China＇ s service export to its major trading partners tends to be ＂over-traded＂. A glimpse of the industry suggests that apart from proprietary rights and franchise fees and the insurance industry which are ＂under-traded＂, other service industries in China are being ＂over-traded＂ .

关 键 词：服务贸易 出口潜力 引力模型 增长 

分 类 号：F752.62[经济管理—国际贸易]