Social impacts of the climatic shift around the turn of the 19th century on the North China Plain  

作　　者：FANG XiuQi XIAO LingBo WEI ZhuDeng 

机构地区：[1]School of Geography,Beijing Normal University [2]Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research,Chinese Academy of Sciences

出　　处：《Science China Earth Sciences》2013年第6期1044-1058,共15页中国科学（地球科学英文版）

基　　金：supported by National Basic Researh Program of China(Grant No. 2010CB950103);National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant No. 41071127)

摘　　要：Historical case studies of climate change impacts and the resulting social responses can provide analogies for better under- standing the impacts of current and future climate changes. Around the turn of the 19th century, the climate of the North China Plain experienced a shift from a relatively warm stage in the 18th century to a colder stage in the 19th century, which was characterised by a much colder climate and more frequent and severe floods and droughts. Historical information about refu- gees, social disorder, grain transportation, and disaster relief on the North China Plain in 1780-1819 is collected from the Ver- itable Records of the Qing Dynasty （a collection of official records）. The mechanism of climate change affecting the food se- curity of the society, as indicated by the development of a refugee problem around the turn of the 19th century, is analyzed by examining the social vulnerability. There are four basic findings： （1） In the 40 years from 1780-1819, the society on the North China Plain was unstable and characterised by a significant deterioration of the refugee situation. The number of refugees in- creased markedly, and their behaviour became increasingly violent. In the 1780s, most of the disaster victims chose to stay at their residences waiting for relief. From 1790 to 1800, hundreds of thousands of refugees migrated to northeast China. In the 1810s, the frequency of farmer rebellions increased sharply. （2） The increase in instability corresponded to the climatic cooling over the same time period. The increased instability was a result of the negative impacts of climate change accumulating and transmitting to the social level. （3） For food security, a precondition for the negative impacts of climate change on human soci- ety was the vulnerability of the regional socioeconomic system, which had a high sensitivity and low capacity to respond. This vulnerability could be described by the following three observations： O The regional balance of supply and demand for food Historical case studies of climate change impacts and the resulting social responses can provide analogies for better understanding the impacts of current and future climate changes.Around the turn of the 19th century,the climate of the North China Plain experienced a shift from a relatively warm stage in the 18th century to a colder stage in the 19th century,which was characterised by a much colder climate and more frequent and severe floods and droughts.Historical information about refugees,social disorder,grain transportation,and disaster relief on the North China Plain in 1780-1819 is collected from the Veritable Records of the Qing Dynasty(a collection of official records).The mechanism of climate change affecting the food security of the society,as indicated by the development of a refugee problem around the turn of the 19th century,is analyzed by examining the social vulnerability.There are four basic findings:(1) In the 40 years from 1780-1819,the society on the North China Plain was unstable and characterised by a significant deterioration of the refugee situation.The number of refugees increased markedly,and their behaviour became increasingly violent.In the 1780s,most of the disaster victims chose to stay at their residences waiting for relief.From 1790 to 1800,hundreds of thousands of refugees migrated to northeast China.In the 1810s,the frequency of farmer rebellions increased sharply.(2) The increase in instability corresponded to the climatic cooling over the same time period.The increased instability was a result of the negative impacts of climate change accumulating and transmitting to the social level.(3) For food security,a precondition for the negative impacts of climate change on human society was the vulnerability of the regional socioeconomic system,which had a high sensitivity and low capacity to respond.This vulnerability could be described by the following three observations:① The regional balance of supply and demand for food was in a critical state,which led to a high sensitivity and

关 键 词：climate refugees impact of climate change Little Ice Age North China Plain 

分 类 号：P467[天文地球—大气科学及气象学]