中国经济发展面临的风险和模式转变路径及对国内石油市场的影响  

Risks and change in the Chinese economy and their influence on the domestic oil market

作　　者：戴家权[1] 郭一凡[1] 董振宇[1] 

机构地区：[1]中国石油集团经济技术研究院

出　　处：《国际石油经济》2013年第3期13-20,108,共8页International Petroleum Economics

摘　　要：中国经济在取得巨大成就的同时,也积累了诸多问题和隐患,并在金融危机爆发后愈发凸显,集中体现在:政府主导投资造成行业产能过剩、投资效益低下;全球化红利逐步释放,出口导向型经济难以为继;人口红利逐步衰减,老龄化加大社会压力;房地产泡沫化,经济存在硬着陆风险;货币供应过剩,中长期通胀压力较大。未来中国经济增长模式将由投资拉动转向消费拉动,由重工业拉动转向服务业拉动,由政府主导投资转向私人主导投资。同时,通过改善劳动者报酬、完善社会保障体系、深化财税改革、提升人民生活水平、促进消费升级,增强经济增长的内生动力。未来中国经济增长不再高速但更加稳健,石油消费增速随之放缓;大消费时代带来乘用车保有量快速增长支撑汽油需求刚性持续增加;产业结构不断优化,服务业占比提升,柴油需求受到抑制;房地产降温,下游化工品需求增速下降;中西部地区将成为拉动成品油需求的新亮点。China's economy has accumulated a lot of problems along with great achievements, problems that have become more prominent post financial crisis and embodied in: industrial overcapacity caused by government-led investment resulting in low investment efficiency; gradual release of globalization dividends and unsustainability of the export-oriented economy; gradual elimination of the demographic dividend and increasing social pressure led by an aging population; a real estate bubble and risk of the economy's hard landing; medium-to-long-term inflationary pressure from excess money supply. China's economic growth should shift from investment-led to consumption-driven, from heavy-industry-driven towards services-industry-driven, from investment that is government-led to privately-led. At the same time, people's living standards should improve, consumption be upgraded, and the incentive for economic growth be endogenized by improving worker remuneration and the social security system as well as deepening fiscal and tax reform. China's future economic growth should be less high-speed and more robust with less oil consumption growth; the durable-goods consuming era has brought rapid growth in car ownership and therefore supported the strong demand for gasoline; the industrial structure is changing with a growing proportion of production in the services sector, suppressing growth in diesel demand; growth in downstream chemicals demand has been slowing because of the cooling real estate market; the Central and Western regions should become new bright spots of stimulated demand for refined oil.

关 键 词：中国 经济发展 投资效益 老龄化 房地产泡沫 通胀 增长模式 石油需求 

分 类 号：F124[经济管理—世界经济] F426.22