基于汇率目标区的有管理的离散浮动汇率制度构建  

Managed Discrete Floating Exchange System Construction Based on Target Zone

作　　者：刘柏[1] 张艾莲[1] 

机构地区：[1]吉林大学商学院,吉林长春130012

出　　处：《求是学刊》2013年第4期76-81,共6页Seeking Truth

基　　金：国家社会科学基金一般项目"完善人民币汇率形成机制及应对升值压力研究";项目编号:11BJY141;教育部人文社会科学研究青年基金项目"汇率与国际收支协动变化的中国经济发展模式研究";项目编号:10YJC790164

摘　　要：在经济发展历程中,国家受经济基本面的影响会采取不同的汇率制度,但是固定汇率制度和完全意义的浮动汇率制度存在固有的阻碍,所以汇率目标区制度应运而生。在我国资本项目未完全开放的前提下,为了避免汇率制度剧烈变动所引致的潜在风险,可实施有管理的离散浮动汇率制度,分别在短期和长期内根据经济基本面的区制改变对汇率实施离散型调控。针对外汇市场压力指数的变化趋势进行实证检验表明,我国2005年汇改适应了现实经济发展状况,汇率波动幅度处于目标区内,体现了汇率的离散型变动。In the process of economic development, different exchange rate systems are utilized based on economic condition. Because of the inherited defect of fixed and floating exchange rate system, ex- change rate zone comes into being. Under the condition of capital project not being wholly open, managed discrete floating exchange system should be utilized to avoid potential risks caused by ex- change rate change. Exchange rate is discretely controlled according to economic condition in short and long term. According to empirical test, the change trend of exchange market pressure index shows the exchange rate reform in 2005 is adapt to the real economic condition, and the floating band is inside the target zones. The resuhs show the discrete change of exchange rate.

关 键 词：汇率目标区 离散浮动汇率制度 外汇市场压力指数 

分 类 号：F832.52[经济管理—金融学] F224